It is a dreary, cold last day of March. Temperatures are 40-46 as of 4:15 p.m.
On this gray, cold day with brisk north-northeast wind, a few spotty showers are possible this late afternoon to tonight.
They may mix with a snow flakes &/or sleet &/or graupal.
So far, precipitation has been isolated at 15% coverage, but coverage will go up late this afternoon through evening from east to southwest.
Better shower (& possible mixed snow, sleet, graupal in the shower north of Huntington) is coming into our eastern counties & moving southwestward.
They will gradually become isolated tonight & may mix with a snow flakes &/or sleet.
Precipitation could reach as high as 30% later today & then average around 20% tonight.
Patchy fog is possible late.
A few isolated light rain/snow showers are possible Wednesday morning (with some patchy fog possible early), followed by some partial clearing in places in the afternoon-evening. Any isolated rain/snow should taper by midday.
After lows tonight 32-37, highs Wednesday should reach 48-55.
Low clouds diminish Wednesday night-Thursday morning (with some patchy fog), followed by increasing high & mid clouds Thrusday. Low cloud deck may arrive Thursday evening-night.
Lows Wednesday night should run 33-38, followed by highs of 59-65 Thursday.
Cold front is slowing down.
Should pass Friday night to early Saturday morning. No severe weather expected, nor any big heavy rainfall.
Just looks like a band of some showers with isolated t'storm possible & 50% rainfall coverage. Rainfall of 0.02-0.25" is likely.
So, Friday looks dry, becoming breezy to windy late & warmer. Skies look partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s to some places near 70.
There will likely be a SLIGHT RISK in Texas to Arkansas & part of Oklahoma with MARGINAL as far north as Missouri, possible far, far southwest Illinois.
After any showers early Saturday, it looks breezy to windy & cooler with afternoon temperatures of 47-54. Skies look mostly cloudy.
With clearing, lows of 31-35 are likely Saturday night, followed by 58-64 Sunday with mostly sunny skies early becoming partly cloudy. Winds will begin to pick up again from a south-southeast direction.
I do think that farm fieldwork is possible on better-drained soils in a window this weekend &/or very next week.
It looks like showers (isolated t'storm) Monday will not arrive until very late in the day or Monday night.
With skies becoming cloudy & a rather strong southeast wind, highs of 60-66 are likely.
Warm front should shoot northward of area Tuesday with stronger south-southwest winds, mostly cloudy skies, 60s dew points & a few scattered showers & t'storms.
Highs of 70-76 are possible.
Total rainfall Monday-Tuesday is running 0.10-0.50".
Strong storm system may bring us SLIGHT RISK to ENHANCED RISK (Up to MODERATE RISK possible west of our area) of severe weather Wednesday with highs in the 70s & strong southwest winds up to 40 mph.
Potential is there for gusts of 40-55 mph Wednesday night-Thursday morning as low continues to deepen with track through northern Michigan.
It looks much colder behind this system with potential frost/freezing & highs in the 40s & 50s.
However, mid to late April continue to trend warmer & wetter than normal with risk of storminess.
Quite robust severe weather parameters continue to show up in our area around April 13-14 per analog data. Parameters are ENHANCED here with MODERATE (even high-end MODERATE on cusp of HIGH) parameters showing up in previous couple of days west of our area.
Blizzard is possible from Colorado to Nebraska to the Dakotas to Minnesota. Tornado outbreak is possible Iowa to Texas.
Shot of colder air comes in after this with potential of brief, but last light freeze of the year for a good 3/4 of the viewing area.
About 4 main episodes of severe weather are possible in the Plains April 15-30.
Here, there are signs of severe weather risk around April 19 & 28 (from an analog perspective).
Worst of the severe weather parameters line up in the Plains, but we get in on some. When you look at analog parameters & compare them to previous episodes at a similar time of year we are SLIGHT in all of them. We will continue to monitor & compare 100 years of analog.
We turn colder at the start of May with frost possible & the last of any light freezing risk occurs in our far northeast. The main area of severe weather risk during this time will be Texas.
Looks like severe weather risk from North Dakota to Texas may develop near & just after May 5-7, signaling a return to much warmer weather here.
So, after wetter & warmer than normal weather mid to late April overall, we turn cooler & drier than normal overall for early May.
This may bring farmers a planting window, especially on better-drained soils.
However, thoughts are that mid to late May will be wetter than normal & quite stormy with temperatures averaging above normal.