Sadly, death toll is 22 (with many still missing) around Nashville from tornado overnight. It sure looks like the damage is of violent EF4 nature (from footage) with trees debarked, homes destroyed & cars thrown & mangled. Track looks like it may be at least 30 miles. NWS will have complete surveys.
This is a reminder to have a plan on how to get Tornado Warning information at night & always be weather aware. We are approaching the season, so just have a game plan in place at home & work or anywhere you may be. Follow forecasts extremely closely. We want everyone to be safe this severe weather season.
The killer Evansville tornado of 2005, this 2020 tornado all occurred not under Enhanced or Moderate Risks of severe weather, but Slight Risks. Situations can change very quickly, so always just be ready in any watch, warnings, convective outlooks.
As a viewing area with the Palm Sunday Outbreak of 1965, the 1974 outbreak, the deadly March 1976 near West Lafayette & the killer April 1994 violent tornado (to name a few), we know what it is like to go through something like this. I remember the violent June 1990 tornadoes well as a kid. We are with Nashville & our hearts & our prayers go out to them.
Cumulus are building a few showers tonight & this potential will last to dusk. Isolated graupal in a shower is possible.
Winds have already gusted as high as 42 mph today. Gusts of 30-40 mph will occur up to the early evening, then diminish.
Temperatures should run around 50 to the mid 50s with a cool-down to 40s in the evening.
Skies will clear tonight, then cloud up rapidly late with lows 29-33, then rising to 32-35.
Brief shot of rain & snow will pass between 6 & 10 a.m. Wednesday morning. Grass may be briefly whitened in some areas north of US 24 with less than 1". I may completely melted in 1 hour after it ends.
Brief 1-2" is possible over northern Illinois to areas north of the Kankakee River.
We then clear out tomorrow with nortwest winds 15-30 mph & highs 45-52.
Projected brief snowfall accumulation:
High & mid clouds will tend to increase Wednesday night, especially in the southern half, then they clear out Thursday morning.
However, clouds return in the midday-afternoon with a couple of isolated showers as a cold front passes.
We should hit 50-56 around 11 a.m. to 1 p.m., then fall to 45-52.
Winds will be strong from the southwest, then northwest at 15-33 mph.
Friday may have a few flurries/snow showers in the morning (especially northeastern areas) with lots of clouds, followed by a clearing trend.
Highs will only run 37-42 with north-northwest winds 20-35 mph.
Saturday looks mostly sunny with some increasing high clouds possible late with south-southwest winds 15-30 mph.
It clouds up Sunday with 60-64 & south-southwest winds 20-35 mph.
Rain is likely late Sunday night to Monday with risk of a couple of isolated embedded t'storms.
Highs Monday should reach 58-63 with south-southwest winds 20-35 mph becoming west to west-northwest at 15-30 mph in the afternoon.
Temperatures will begin to fall from that 58-63 early afternoon to 44-50 by 6 p.m., it appears.
Rain should return Tuesday PM with an east-northeast wind at 10-20 mph, bleeding in cooler air.
Rain is likely Wednesday with band of snow not far away, perhaps to near the Kankakee River with chilly, raw, cold weather here. highs will run 36-41 with east to northeast winds 20-30 mph.
It is possible that we go to a period of all snow Wednesday night-Thursday morning with temperatures falling to 25-30 with northeast to north winds 20-35 mph.
Some accumulation cannot be ruled out for part of the area to possibly even all of the area.
1.25-2.50" of total liquid is possible from all of this Sunday night-Thursday.
Some flooding will become an issue on area rivers & creeks & streams will be high to even exceeding flood stage.
Beyond Thursday, March 12, a trend will emerge of much warmer, stormy weather latter month. Be ready for earlier-season severe weather.
In the past several years, any earlier-season severe risk has tended to center on "Dixie Alley" in the South. This March looks more focused toward the Plains & Midwest.
Heavy rainfall is also possible in this warmer pattern.
Much colder weather is possible after this big warm spell. I cannot rule out a late-season last hurrah of snow at the end of March with freezing temperatures after several plant species go into bud burst & bloom.
Early days of April look colder than normal with freezing temperatures at night.