The watches are all up, including a PDS Tornado Watch in central & eastern Illinois.
Tornado Watches are in red, Severe T'Storm Watches in blue.
So far, we have seen multiple damaging tornadoes in Iowa, Arkansas & far southeastern Missouri.
There as been a lot of large hail & that includes our area (doesn't include any of our hail reports from this morning in graphic below).
A gust of 75 mph was measured near Dayton, Ohio & numerous reports of hen egg to tennis ball hail has been reported from northeastern Ohio & southwestern Pennsylvania.
After up to 1" hail this morning from Miami County, up to 1.50" hail or ping pong hail was reported in Montgomery County this afternoon. If you have any other hail reports, they are greatly appreciated. From a radar perspective, it sure looked like the hail peaked at 1.75" size east of New Market, exceeding the max 1.50" diameter reported.
Right now, severe weather is concentrated into two zones:
1. Iowa to northwest Illinois with tornadoes & large hail.
2. Tornadoes, large hail & wind from far southern Illinois to northwest Mississippi.
The storms in Ohio will likely end up with some warnings soon as they continue to intensify near Columbus.
Flash Flood Warnings are up for the training supercells earlier along & just north of the warm front that dumped flooding rainfall from Montgomery County, Indiana to southwestern Pennsylvania.
We have not seen much supercell development in central Illinois, so far, owing to clouds there late afternoon-evening & the sinking air downstream from strongly rising air of all of the storms in southern Illinois & southward & strong rising motion in northwestern Illinois to Iowa.
In our area, temperatures range from 60-70 from northeast to southwest right now with dew points 57-68 northeast to southwest. There are even some areas of fog developing with our light south to southeast wind.
Supercells in northwestern Illinois are moving northeastward, while storms from southern Indiana to Mississippi are moving east-northeastward.
So, what happens in-between for us & here on out?
It appears that the northern edge of the storms in southern Indiana get into area, but as rain & a few embedded t'storms.
Latest high-resolution data keeps the severe storms from that round in the Daviess to Putnam to Boone to Grant County, Indiana corridor. We will still monitor to see if these happen to get as far northwest as Montgomery & Howard counties.
As the main upper trough swings through & cold front approaches, supercells & a couple of broken lines of storms are projected to develop in central Illinois & swing eastward through our area.
A few of these could turn severe with tornado, wind & hail risk, as well as risk of flash flood-producing rainfall.
Time table for any severe is now to as late as 2 a.m.
Latest RAP data shows core of very strong +60-knot low-level jet screaming in during the time that storms will be coming in from Illinois & a brief uptick in surface CAPE via advection of higher theta-e airmass from the southwest (more unstable for a time).
It isn't necessarily great influx of CAPE, but given low-level jet & sheared environment, enough for severe.
There is also a strong uptick in the rising motion once the rain & storms from all of that in southern Indiana through part of central Indiana push northeastward.
So, we can't let our guard down yet.
There is still 37% +EF0 tornado probability from any of the storms in central Illinois to Iowa.
Here, they are 15-21% right now from southwest Benton to Montgomery counties, based on current parameters (see graphic below).
+EF2 probability is 10% from Iowa to Illinois & in southeast Missouri.
Despite so much cloud cover today mitigating the best instability, a strengthening 55-knot low-level jet is aimed at central Illinois & will tend to veer toward our area (& also continue to strengthen) with time. Again, it will tend to advect or push higher theta-e air in (moist, more unstable).
This, in highly-sheared environment is leading to rather high Significant Tornado Parameter values in central Illinois with some of those values moving eastward into our area.
We will keep monitoring closely to see how this all pans out.
Could it split & severe weather outbreaks occur southeast & northwest of us. That is possible & have seen it more than once here, but I don't want to go with that yet based on the guidance in front of me.
ENHANCED RISK still looks good for area, but thinking MODERATE RISK will be dropped from Illinois.