SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

March 28, 1:20 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on severe weather & flash flooding risk for today-tonight.

Posted: Mar 28, 2020 1:11 PM
Updated: Mar 28, 2020 1:53 PM

1:45 p.m.:

1:20 p.m.:

SPC outlook is mostly unchanged in latest update.

Severe risk overall:

Tornado risk (still in hatched area for 10% chance of EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of any given point):

Surface warm front is right along Indiana 32 in Fountain & Montgomery counties.  It is 70-73 south of the warm front with dew points 65-68.

North of the warm front, it is in the 50s.

However, warm front is trying to lift back northward & with that lift two heavy storms have developing in Tippecanoe County & are moving northeastward toward Carroll & Clinton counties.  It may weaken, then fizzle in Carroll County & Clinton counties as it exits the area of best elevated instability & lift.

Pea to marble hail core may have occurred with this just a bit earlier near Wingate (per radar).  It may produce hail at anytime before weakening & we will monitor for hail up to 1" in diameter if these storms continue to intensify.

A supercell t'storm with risk of large hail & severe gusts is tracking along warm front southwest of Champaign, Illinois.  We will monitor to see how this tracks into our southern areas over the next hour or two.  Southwest side of it has not shown much rotation yet.  Storm is tending to orient itself slight north of the front & not root completely to the surface.

Behind this, warm front is beginning surge northward in western Illinois.

WRF-ARW seems to have best handle on this storm & attempts to bring it as far north as Fountain & Montgomery to Tippecanoe & Clinton counties as warm front tries to lift back northward.

We will see.

Hail is main threat, but again, if it can orient itself in more of the warmer air & become surface based, then wind & tornado risk goes way up.  However, surface flow for tornado risk with supercell is still not too impressive at the moment, but we will monitor for changes.

Then main batch of storms this evening-early tonight with potential now of a mix of HP supercells & a line of storms, then a low-topped line of gusty showers & storms behind the main severe episode.

Models do show warm front moving way north this evening, bathing us in 68-76 air with 65-68 dew points with all severe hazards on the table (few tornadoes, wind, hail).  Flash flooding is also possible.

Even this evening-tonight, the risk is there for an isolated strong, longer-track tornado, it appears.

Again, we watch for 40-55 mph gusts from the west early Sunday morning & through Sunday with lots of clouds & chilly temperatures.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 30901

Reported Deaths: 1964
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9040531
Lake3191167
Cass15796
Allen121365
St. Joseph113234
Hendricks110365
Hamilton109291
Johnson1065102
Elkhart93827
Madison57658
Bartholomew46733
Porter46521
Clark45038
LaPorte38721
Tippecanoe3563
Jackson3531
Howard34417
Delaware34027
Hancock31527
Shelby31121
Floyd31138
Boone27935
Morgan25724
Vanderburgh2402
Decatur22131
White2128
Montgomery21114
Clinton2041
Harrison18321
Grant17820
Noble17420
Dubois1712
Greene16723
Warrick16326
Dearborn16221
Monroe15810
Henry1556
Lawrence14222
Miami1351
Vigo1357
Putnam1297
Jennings1264
Orange12222
Scott1153
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll882
Daviess8116
Steuben762
Newton7210
Wabash722
Kosciusko711
Wayne665
Marshall611
LaGrange592
Washington521
Jasper521
Fayette504
Fulton461
Rush452
Jefferson411
Jay410
Clay381
Pulaski380
Randolph373
Whitley342
Brown331
Sullivan311
Starke303
Owen301
DeKalb281
Knox240
Benton240
Crawford230
Perry230
Huntington222
Tipton221
Wells220
Switzerland190
Blackford191
Fountain172
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer141
Gibson132
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Martin100
Union80
Vermillion80
Pike50
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
Clear
87° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Kokomo
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 88°
Rensselaer
Scattered Clouds
88° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Fowler
Scattered Clouds
86° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 87°
Williamsport
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 88°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
83° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Frankfort
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 90°
Delphi
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Monticello
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Logansport
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 87°
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