SEVERE WX : Flash Flood Watch - Flood Warning View Alerts

March 28, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Some significant severe weather risk, flooding risk & high winds ahead.

Posted: Mar 28, 2020 10:44 AM
Updated: Mar 28, 2020 4:12 PM

Storms moved through area lastnight to this morning.  1" or quarter-size hail was reported near Bunker Hill (Miami County) this morning.  0.75" or penny-size hail was reported northwest of Kokomo & near Amboy, while 0.50" hail was reported near Galveston.  We had 0.25" or pea hail here at WLFI.

A corridor of up to 1" of rainfall occurred from near West Lafayette to near Grissom ARB & Amboy.

As of 10:50 a.m., temperatures vary from 45 to 72 over the viewing area with warm front draped just south of 26.  Across Greater Lafayette, temperatures far from 52-53 from WLFI to Bar Berry Heights & around Green Hill to west of Buck Creek.  South of South Street (26), temperatures are suddenly 56-59.  It is 62 at Concord now & 69 at Romney!

There are still showers & a few storms along & north of this warm front.  An isolated pea to penny hailer is possible.

Temperature spread as of 10:50 a.m. with warm front:

45 Morocco

46 Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport

48 I-65/US 24

48 6 NE Winamac

48 Remington

48 Round Grove

48 Monticello-White County Airport

48 Rochester-Fulton County Airport

48 Logansport-Cass County AIrport

48 Peru Municipal Airport

49 2 E Fowler

50 Kentland Municipal Airport

50 Kokomo Municipal Airport

50 Galveston Airport

50 Flora Municipal Airport

53 WLFI Ob site

57 Purdue University Airport

62 3 E Attica

68 2 NW Crawfordsville

68 I-74/US 231

68 Frankfort Municipal Airport

69 I-65/28

71 Covington

This warm front is very troubling.  It is these sharp warm front that often lead to tornadoes, some long-track in this set-up.

So, let's go through all this & set up the severe weather scenario.........

The entire viewing area is in ENHANCED RISK for severe weather today to tonight.

MODERATE RISK is just west of the state line.

Given parameters forecast to be in place, it is not out of the question that there be an upgrade to HIGH RISK in Illinois with expansion of MODERATE RISK into part of our viewing area.

The hatched area per SPC indicates "10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point".

It appears that the potential is there for the warm front to stall over the area this midday-afternoon, as rain-cooled air to the north & some Lake Michigan & Lake Erie water chill may keep the north quite chilly.  Meanwhile, 70s & 80s will be trying to move northward as breaks in the clouds develop south of our area.

The result may be that it is 75 in the south with a south-southwest wind (with muggy dew point around 67) & around 50 in the far north by early afternoon with fog, rain, some t'storms & an east to northeast wind.

The front may line up in the typical climate zone change between more Indianapolis-type climate around Lafayette to more Chicago-type climate around Monticello & Remington to even a bit of more Iowa or northern Missouri-type climate in Benton County.

This position would be near 26 or between 18 & 26.

The potential is there for an HP supercell with large to very large hail & tornado risk & severe wind gusts (from forward-flank & rear-flank downdrafts) to develop & track from west of Springfield, Illinois, through Warren, Tippecanoe to Carroll, Howard counties, then eastward to Lima, Ohio (will tend to begin to track more to the northeast as warm front begins to lift north in response to strong low pressure, cold front & upper trough swinging into Illinois).

Exact track of the HP supercell is uncertain, but this is the best idea right now.  There is no guarantee this storm will blow up to such a degree either, but it is possible.

Be aware that if this storm does develop & the part that rotates tracks on the warm side of the warm front & becomes surface-based, then risk a strong, long-track tornado COULD develop (as long as low-level flow continues to increase & low-level hodographs showing increasing curve).

This scenario would tend to occur in the 3-7 p.m. time frame.

We will monitor closely.  Just be weather-aware & have a plan on what you would do if a tornado is bearing down on your place &/or if you have vehicles & large to very large hail is approaching.

Very heavy rainfall (1-1.50" of rain in 20 minutes possible in heaviest part of storm) could occur with the supercell in areas that are saturated, which could lead to flash flooding.

I just want to keep you weather-aware of the POTENTIAL of this.  One fly in the ointment is lack of much clearing south of the warm front right now, but we will see if that even matters at this point.

After the potential of that supercell, warm front should shoot northward & we should all reach 69-76 with dew points 65-68.  We will then watch supercells tending to congeal into more of a line as they approach & move in from Illinois.

Or, it could be a situation of supercells congealing into clusters or a couple of bows, followed by a narrow line along the actual cold front.

Some scattered severe gusts & isolated brief tornadoes (isolated hailer) are possible with heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.

This should pass in the 8 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame.

Stay weather-aware through the evening & into tonight.

After this, dry slot will arrive with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 with southwest winds 15-30 mph.

Low cloud deck will overspread area in the 6-8 a.m. time frame with wall of wind coming in.  Winds may gust 40-55 mph from the west.  These high gusts may continue into much of Sunday with low clouds & even a few showers coming in.  The best potential of any sort of breaks in the low clouds would be in the southern areas.

A Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning is possible from NWS for the viewing area.

Highs will only run in the 40s to around 50 with wind chills largely 30-40 degrees.

Dry slot & low clouds with some showers:

West Lafayette
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 48°
Feels Like: 52°
Kokomo
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 48°
Feels Like: 52°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 42°
Fowler
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 52°
Williamsport
Cloudy
55° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 49°
Feels Like: 55°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
54° wxIcon
Hi: 63° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 54°
Frankfort
Cloudy
54° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 49°
Feels Like: 54°
Delphi
Cloudy
49° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 49°
Feels Like: 45°
Monticello
Cloudy
49° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 48°
Feels Like: 45°
Logansport
Cloudy
° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: °
Heavy rain and gusty winds are main threats overnight Sunday.
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