SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

March 27, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the increasing severe weather & flash to river & stream flooding risk.

Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:12 AM
Updated: Mar 27, 2020 6:24 PM

After highs varying at 54-64 over the area yesterday, lows overnight varied from 39-51 from northwest to south.

It is hard to believe that the southern part of Indiana reached the low 80s yesterday in the sunshine.  The 70-degree line reached from Cincinnati, Ohio to Bedford, Indiana to Vincennes, Indiana.  However, Indy reached 68 & Cloverdale to Greencastle 67.

With some showers & t'storms, then some showers & drizzle yesterday, I received three reports of pea to marble hail from east of Logansport in Cass County to near Sante Fe (Miami County).  Hail was reportedly near penny size in northern Grant County.

We have had rain this morning with best coverage south of Indiana 18.  That more widespread rainfall is departing, but there are still spotty showers & drizzle around with strong east/northeast winds to southeast winds from north to south in the area.

Rather than just confining the rainfall to the morning hours, I extended the risk of at least some rainfall through the afternoon & right into the early evening.  A break is possible for 2-3 hours over the entire viewing area by mid-evening.

Highs today should run 54-66 from northwest to south.

Overnight, MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK of severe weather comes in.  It would not surprise me if SLIGHT RISK is expanded eastward more to cover more & more of the viewing area.

Severe risk should occur in the 11 p.m. to 9 a.m. time frame as new showers & t'storms develop.

Main threat is hail, but an isolated tornado or two (&/or severe gust) cannot be ruled out for any more intense storm that becomes more surface based on the south side of the warm front (where temperatures will be in the 60s).

We weather-aware overnight & have a way to get warnings via your phone to NOAA weather radio.

Lows tonight will run 46-65 from north to south with the warm front straddling the viewing area.

Flooding is becoming a substantial concern.

0.75-1.75" of rainfall is likey area-wide today through Saturday morning.  However, there will likely be a corridor of +2.50" rainfall amounts.

Right now, that may set up from Benton through White, far northern Carroll to Cass to central Miami counties.  However, the exact position or width of band of heaviest rainfall is in question.  The exact amounts are in question, as well.

However, if this band sets up in this zone (which has had the highest amount of rainfall since yesterday), a substantial flash flooding & areal flooding risk will develop.

Be weather-aware if you live along creeks & streams in the area tonight, specifically this mentioned zone & along creeks & streams emanating from this zone (including Carpenter Creek, Talley Ditch, Big Pine Creek, Big Creek, Big Monon Creek, Dickey Creek or Grassy Creek to Indian Creek (the Indian Creek in Cass & Miami counties).

We should see a break with sunshine developing tomorrow morning to midday with strong south-southwest to southeast winds & temperatures surging.

However, may concern a period of potential of some supercells in the 4-7 p.m. time frame with wind, tornado & hail risk with temperatures at 67-77 over the area.  We will monitor that time frame, as some data suggests that these supercells will tend to occur just north of our area & we will be completely dry with 74-79 during this time.

Especial concern would be given to cells along the warm front as it will be laid up over the northwestern to northern tier of the area with low-level wind shift from southeast to south-southwest along it.

We will then watch supercells in Illinois congeal into a line & pass the viewing area in the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame.

Main threat would tend to become wind, though isolated tornado & hail cannot be ruled out.

With passage of front, temperatures should drop from the 60s to 70 to 40-45 very quickly with west to west-northwest winds gusting 35-45 mph (isolated +45 mph gust).

After a dry slot, low clouds should pivot in, leading to a gray, cold start to Sunday with a few light showers & sprinkles.

There is an ENHANCED RISK of severe weather for a good chunk of us Saturday.

There is the risk of a couple strong, long-track tornadoes in Illinois along warm front & at surface low, warm front, cold front & pseudo-dry line intersection.

Between now & Saturday night, a total of 1-2.50" of rainfall is likely viewing area-wide.  However, there will be a narrow band of +2.50" (with potential of up to 5.50" in that band).

Sunday will feature low, dreary clouds & west-northwest gusts up to 40 mph through the day.  Some sun may appear at time through holes in the clouds along & south of I-74.

Spotty showers are possible, with best coverage north of Indiana 18.

Highs will run 42 to 51 north to south over the area.

After lows 34-39 Monday night with northwest winds 10-20 mph leading to wind chills in the 20s to 30, highs Monday should run 47-54 with partly cloudy skies (though winds will be brisk at 10-20 mph from the west-northwest).

With east to northeast winds 15-25 mph Tuesday, rain is possible with highs in the 40s.  It has the possibility of beginning & ending as some wet snow (or mixing with wet snow) in parts of the area with temperatues in the 30s.

I will tell you that some data suggests that much of this system will stay south of our area, however.  I would like to keep potential of rainfall & some wet snow in the forecast, however.  Canadian & UK model is most aggressive with keeping Tuesday drier.

European model has rain & rain/snow in the area with this with heaviest precipitation in our southern counties & southward.

Early half of April overall just looks plain chilly with multiple nights of frost & freezing & most days below normal temperature-wise.

A random 1-day warm up of 60s is possible in early April with some t'storms, otherwise, keep your winter coat handy.

However, overall precipitation for the early half of April is still trending below normal.

Want consistent, nice warmth?  You will have to wait until the mid-point of April for our first 80.

However, with the above normal temperatures for latter half of April comes above normal rainfall & risk of multiple rounds of severe weather risk.

Early May looks drier & cooler than normal with potential of some frost, followed by wetter, stormy, warmer mid to late May.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 30901

Reported Deaths: 1964
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9040531
Lake3191167
Cass15796
Allen121365
St. Joseph113234
Hendricks110365
Hamilton109291
Johnson1065102
Elkhart93827
Madison57658
Bartholomew46733
Porter46521
Clark45038
LaPorte38721
Tippecanoe3563
Jackson3531
Howard34417
Delaware34027
Hancock31527
Shelby31121
Floyd31138
Boone27935
Morgan25724
Vanderburgh2402
Decatur22131
White2128
Montgomery21114
Clinton2041
Harrison18321
Grant17820
Noble17420
Dubois1712
Greene16723
Warrick16326
Dearborn16221
Monroe15810
Henry1556
Lawrence14222
Miami1351
Vigo1357
Putnam1297
Jennings1264
Orange12222
Scott1153
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll882
Daviess8116
Steuben762
Newton7210
Wabash722
Kosciusko711
Wayne665
Marshall611
LaGrange592
Washington521
Jasper521
Fayette504
Fulton461
Rush452
Jefferson411
Jay410
Clay381
Pulaski380
Randolph373
Whitley342
Brown331
Sullivan311
Starke303
Owen301
DeKalb281
Knox240
Benton240
Crawford230
Perry230
Huntington222
Tipton221
Wells220
Switzerland190
Blackford191
Fountain172
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer141
Gibson132
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Martin100
Union80
Vermillion80
Pike50
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
Clear
87° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Kokomo
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 66°
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Rensselaer
Clear
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Hi: 89° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
Fowler
Clear
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Hi: 87° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
Williamsport
Clear
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Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 87°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 83°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 88°
Delphi
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Monticello
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Logansport
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 86°
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