SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

March 27, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on severe weather & flash flooding risk.

Posted: Mar 27, 2020 9:41 PM
Updated: Mar 27, 2020 10:17 PM

Highs today ran 51-62 with a window of some dry weather this evening for the viewing area.

Now, scattered showers are redeveloping with some isolated thunder.

Showers & storms will continue to increase tonight.  11 p.m. to 9 a.m. has risk of isolated severe storm at first, then increasing to a few embedded scattered severe storms.  Peak in severe risk should run 5-8 a.m., it appears.

Main threat is hail.  There is the risk of an isolated tornado &/or severe gust if a storm becomes more surface based just south of the warm front in the 60s warmth.

Temperatures will run 44-65 later tonight as temperatures rise in the south with movement of the warm front northward.

SPC has entire area in SLIGHT RISK for severe tonight to Saturday morning.

Break should ensue following this in the morning with sunshine breaking through & strong southeast to south-southwest winds from north to south. 

Temperatures should skyrocket to 72-79 by afternoon with mugginess spreading northward.

There is the risk of a random, isolated severe supercell storm or two (with tornado, hail & wind risk) in our area in the general 5-8 p.m. time frame ahead of the congealing line in Illinois.  However, it is uncertain whether this will take place.  It would tend to occur along a bit of a secondary warm front & dew point front with 71-75 north of it & 76-79 south of it (& dew points 60-62 north of it & 63-68 south of it.) We will monitor.

Then, line should pass in the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame for the viewing area with scattered wind risk largely.  However, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Much of the area is in ENHANCED RISK for severe weather tomorrow afternoon to tomorrow night.

MODERATE RISK is up in Illinois.  It is that zone that is at risk for hail up to very large size & a couple of strong to violent, long-track tornadoes.

Since yesterday, up to 1.10" of rainfall has occurred from Benton & parts of Newton & Jasper through White to Cass & Miami counties (where some sub-severe hail occurred yesterday).

Now to Saturday night hows 0.75-1.75" of additional rainfall for the area.

I am still focusing on potential of narrow +2.50" band that could end up over the area. 

Model below hints at 2-4" narrow band from Ford & Livingston counties in Illinois to Newton, Jasper to northern White to northern Miami counties.

Exact position & how much rain may exactly fall in such a narrow corridor is unclear, but just be weather aware of the flash flooding risk.

Higher-end minor to moderate river flooding will develop next week.

As a result of this, the Northern Indiana National Weather Service Forecast Office (in coordination with NWS Indy) has put out the Flash Flood Watch for White, Cass, Carroll, Miami, Howard, Pulaski & Fulton counties.

NWS Chicago Forecast Office has Flood Watch up for Iroquois River in Newton County.

Dry slot should then arrive with clearing tomorrow night, then low clouds roll in with temperature drop from 60s to 40s with cold front.

Some sprinkles & then some showers will pivot into area late Saturday & into Sunday.

West to northwest winds may gust 40-50 mph at times late Saturday night to Sunday morning with gusts still 40 mph even into the afternoon-evening Sunday.

Some sun may appear in the south part of the area Sunday, but the northern 3/4 should be pretty gray with a scattering of showers.

Highs will run near 43 in the north to 52 in the south.

Clouds late Saturday night to Sunday morning following storms:

West to northwest

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 30901

Reported Deaths: 1964
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9040531
Lake3191167
Cass15796
Allen121365
St. Joseph113234
Hendricks110365
Hamilton109291
Johnson1065102
Elkhart93827
Madison57658
Bartholomew46733
Porter46521
Clark45038
LaPorte38721
Tippecanoe3563
Jackson3531
Howard34417
Delaware34027
Hancock31527
Shelby31121
Floyd31138
Boone27935
Morgan25724
Vanderburgh2402
Decatur22131
White2128
Montgomery21114
Clinton2041
Harrison18321
Grant17820
Noble17420
Dubois1712
Greene16723
Warrick16326
Dearborn16221
Monroe15810
Henry1556
Lawrence14222
Miami1351
Vigo1357
Putnam1297
Jennings1264
Orange12222
Scott1153
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll882
Daviess8116
Steuben762
Newton7210
Wabash722
Kosciusko711
Wayne665
Marshall611
LaGrange592
Washington521
Jasper521
Fayette504
Fulton461
Rush452
Jefferson411
Jay410
Clay381
Pulaski380
Randolph373
Whitley342
Brown331
Sullivan311
Starke303
Owen301
DeKalb281
Knox240
Benton240
Crawford230
Perry230
Huntington222
Tipton221
Wells220
Switzerland190
Blackford191
Fountain172
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer141
Gibson132
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Martin100
Union80
Vermillion80
Pike50
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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