Part I of the major tornado outbreak in the South to Tennessee & Ohio Valleys is underway with already 1 significant, long-track tornado in Alabama.
PDS Tornado Watches are up in the South. Now, new Tornado Watch will go up soon for southern Illinois & Indiana.
This outbreak is just now beginning to get going.
Some scattered showers are around now with some peeks of sun. Temperatures will continue to warm.
Heavy rainfall & storms will arrive this evening.
There is still the risk of a couple severe storms with a tornado or two southeast of a Pine Village to Peru line. Northwest of there, risk is nil.
These storms will be very close to the center of the rapidly-deepening surface low where shear & helicity are maximized in the area.
Risk of the tornado or two is 8 p.m.-11 p.m.
High wind event follows 1-5 a.m. from west & southwest to east & northeast as rain gradually subsides. Gusts of 50-65 mph are expected with sustained winds of 25-40 mph from the northwest.
Surface pressure here may drop to 986 mb! Incredibly, the surface low is 1004 mb right now near Memphis & a lot of its deepening will occur as it tracks from southern Illinois to about Peru, Indiana. We should see a drop of 12 mb from southern Illinois to near Peru! Impressive! It is during this time that tornado violence will be maximized from the South to Ohio Valley. In looking through my analog data & record, this bears some resemblance to the November 1992 outbreak.
Much of the violence was just south & southeast of our area in that outbreak, but we did get two tornadoes in to the area. Montgomery County had an F2 & F3 with 1-1.75" hail. We had marble to nickel hail as far north as Lafayette.
Stay weather-aware 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. for the tornado or two risk, then the high wind event.
Power outages & tree damage is likely.
A total of 1-2" of rainfall (isolated +2") is possible.
Model depiction of rotating updrafts tracks & possible tornadic development (green & yellow).