It was a foggy, frosty morning with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Fog & low clouds are giving way to sun & warm front is on the move northward.
Some scattered to areas of cumulus/stratocumulus may be around today with the sunshine, followed by increasing mid-level cloudiness late today.
With a southeast to south wind developing, highs today should reach near 60 to as high as 65.
With a southeast to south-southeast wind at 8-15 mph tonight & some clouds, lows should run in the 40s.
A period of fog is possible early to mid morning Thursday before dispersing as it sneaks in from Illinois & west-central Indiana. Best potential of reduced visibilities is southwestern half of the area.
Tomorrow, clouds will tend to increase & some scattered showers & storms should develop along & north of the warm front. They should begin in Illinois & move east-northeastward.
Winds will vary from east to northeast in the north to southeast & south in the south part of the area tomorrow, depending on what side of the warm front you are on.
As a result of this, highs tomorrow should run 55 in the far north to 67 in the far southwest.
An isolated hailer or two is possible (isoalted large hailer cannot be ruled out).
Any rainfall should taper Thursday night-early Friday morning as warm front sinks southward a bit.
Skies should be mostly cloudy Friday & warm front will begin to move back northward.
By late Friday afternoon to evening, a few storms may pop on the warm front & move eastward into the viewing area.
A storm with large hail cannot be ruled out.
Winds Friday will vary from northeast to southeast over the area, depending on the position of the warm front.
Highs will run from 52 in the far northwest to 67 in the far southwest.
Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK for the northwestern half of the area Thursday to Friday with possible pocket of SLIGHT Thursday from northeastern Missouri to central Illinois where nose of strong low-level jet will aid in large hail growth.
A pocket of MARGINAL RISK may occur over central Illinois to our far northwestern counties for Friday.
After some periodic scattered showers/storms Saturday, a line of storms is possible in the evening.
The risk of severe weather will be around midday through afternoon to evening.
Hail would be the threat first as storms will be slightly elevated initially, then the risk of more surface-based severe weather risk like wind to an isolated tornado or two will move in as warm front shoots north of the area. Cells along the warm front as it advances northward will need especial attention due to the sharp surface shear along it.
Parameters suggest SLIGHT RISK with ENHANCED southwest of our area, but we will monitor & await official SPC forecasts.
Highs Saturday should run 67-74.
Sunday looks gray, windy to very windy & much colder with some scattered rain, possibly mixing with snow late with temperatures in the 40s falling to the 30s.
After some showers/storms around April 1, there are two times when we may see some snow. Around April 3 & again near April 9. Freezing is likely at night & daily highs will run below to well below normal in the 40s. Some very minor, brief accumulation cannot be ruled out for parts of the area.
Nice, consistent warmth will not get here until around the mid point of April.
At least the first half of April does trend below normal rainfall-wise.
That is when we will suddenly likely see our first 80 of the year for much of the area.
We may also see the severe weather risk go up for the latter half of April with above normal rainfall expected.
After that, early May looks cool with frost (& below normal rainfall), then return of warmth with above normal rainfall.
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