March 24, 2:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

After a great Saturday, more warmth ahead.

Posted: Mar 24, 2019 1:32 PM
Updated: Mar 24, 2019 2:35 PM

Scattered showers at times are possible today-tonight.

Heaviest rainfall will remain south of our area (& the risk of severe t'storms will stay southwest of our area), but we will have showers at times throught tonight with dry time in-between.

The good news is that any showers (which may ends a couple flakes in places) will exit very early Monday.  Clouds will tend to break & clear from north to south in the afternoon.

It does not look as cold as it appeared last week with highs of 45-51.

It will be windy, however, with north-northeast winds at 20-30 mph.

Winds will turn light tomorrow night. This, combined with dry air & clear skies, will allow lows to drop to 20-25.

After a frosty, cold start to Tuesday, with sunshine & just some patches of clouds, highs should reach 47-52 with an east-northeast wind at 6-12 mph.

Tuesday night will be cold with clear skies & lows 23-26.

Wednesday will see the start of a nice warm-up. It is looking better & better with lots of sunshine (some increasing clouds late), southerly winds at 5-10 mph & highs 56-62.

Some scattered showers are possible Thursday, followed more on Friday (with isolated t'storms), then the heaviest of the rainfall Friday night-very early Saturday morning.

Highs Thursday-Friday will be in the 60s with lows in the 50s.

We may be around 60 to the 60s early next Saturday (before sunrise), but then temperatures should fall in the afternoon from the 50s to the 40s by midday with an overcast.

We may clear some late in the day, but temperatures will remain in the 40s with northeast at 20-30 mph.

After 28-32 next Saturday night, highs of 47-52 seem likely next Sunday.

30-33 Sunday night looks to give way to 50s for April 1.

I went with 60s April 3 & 4 based on model ensembles.


Beyond that, there is now A LOT of conflict among model solutions & now even analog.  There has been the development of conflict really since early March, making this one of the more challenging Marches to forecast for the meteorological community as a whole.  Some pattern basics are there, but small features are having big impacts.

All that said, I think data is having a problem with this rather rare double El Nino developing. We went from El Nino Modoki to Modoki with very, very heavy MJO influence to Modoki with lack of MJO influence to near La Nina by February, then back to Modoki again in a low solar year.  Now, we are in full-throttle model to traditional El Nino. 

There is a conflict on how long this traditional El Nino surge will last.  Some ensembles actually have this El Nino peaking in early summer, then going neutral by mid summer or peaking in may & going neutral by July.  Strength varies & speed of strengthening varies, as well.  In looking at my analogs, it would seem unlikely this would suddenly go neutral in the summer & that it would strengthen & last into fall, before going neutral by next late fall-winter.

This traditional El Nino is developing very quickly & not in fall or winter (when we typical see the El Nino develop), but spring.  Such big, large-scale changes are posing problems in really getting a good handle on the pattern now.  I am sitting here looking at data that conflicts so, so much in April.  I am shifting my analogs some due to this blow up of double El Nino & even my analogs are conflicting eachother & having trouble finding commonality. 

That said, Euro has chilly weather dominating until mid-month, then very warm all the way to early May.GFS has near mid-April accumulating snowfal LOL.  Other models have warmth early April, then cold mid-April, then warmth (which is originally what my analog data had shown). Precipitation is showing more consistency toward normal to slightly drier than normal weather to early May. 

So, in saying these things, right now, there are two surges of warmth in April with the latter much more impressive than the first.  Question is, is the first surge early or mid April?  Do I stick with warm surge first, then cool?  Climatology for our area since 1880s says stick with what I have had for months.  Climatology also told me stick with big upper ridge with 60s to 70 for days recently too & we could only eek out one nice day.

I am going to analog through double El Ninos with a sudden shift with traditional & take years similar to this one again & see what I come up with.  This takes time & research though.  I literally spend hours digging through previous years & patterns to make your forecast.  I will have another update tonight.

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