March 24, 1 PM Long-Range Outlook

Here is your latest 6-month outlook.

Posted: Mar 24, 2020 11:09 AM
Updated: Mar 24, 2020 7:52 PM

Rain is shifting to more of a southerly track today-tonight.

Southern half of viewing area may see 0.14" or less of rainfall late today-tonight with brisk winds & 40s to 50 today & near 40 tonight.

Patchy to areas of fog are likely tonight to early Wednesday morning with lows in the 30s.

Sun will gradually appear tomorrow with some Wednesday night spotty rain in the northwest & north with increasing clouds.

Winds will turn to southeast then south with highs 50s to potentially some 60s.

Thursday, scattered rain possible, mainly northwestern areas with highs 60s to 70.

Scattered showers/t'storms are possible at times Friday-Saturday with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters arriving with windy, warm highs 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday looks dry & cooler with 40s.

We briefly warm with some severe risk to start April, then freezing temperatures arrive in early April with only 40s highs.  Some snow is possible around April 9.

Big surge of warm with first 80 should around in the midpoint of April with severe weather ramping up in latter April with above normal temperatures & precipitation.

Early May looks colder & dry with some frost, then warmer, wetter & stormy mid to late May.

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PRECIPITATION:

Preliminary overall fieldwork/planting windows for farmers as if March 24:

April 10-16

May 1-7

A couple of 1- to 2-day windows look possible the end of May

Mid to Late June

First half of April features below normal precipitation.

Second half features above normal rainfall.

Rainfall goes to normal to below normal with cooler weather in early May.

We should turn wet again as we get past the first week of May.

June looks wetter than normal.

Early Summer looks wet, but once we pass early July, there is a drier trend.

Mid to late July through August trends overall below normal rainfall.

Only wildcard would be a tropical storm or hurricane remnants impacting area.

Flash drought may develop.

The latter 2020-22 La Nina begins to show its influence.

Fall 2020 is overall drier than normal with potential of a worsening drought regime & increased brush fire danger.

Below normal rainfall may be the trend from September to mid-November, then we see above normal rainfall again.

Outlook wildcard would be hurricane or tropical storm remnants impacting area.

Wetter regime in late November carries to early December, then shuts off.

Thinking mid to late December will feature below normal precipitation.

Winter 2020-21 is trending warmer & drier than normal with the October-April snow season trending with below normal snowfall.

Spring 2021 looks more active than it has looked since 2011 in our area with La Nina in place.

TEMPERATURES:

Early April:  Colder than normal (some snow possible around April 9 cannot be ruled out) with freezing temperatures at night.

Latter half of April:  Warmer than normal

Early May:  Colder than normal with some frost.

Mid- to late-May:  Warmer than normal

June:  Warmer than normal, especially due to warmth at night.

July:  Warmer than normal

Late July to early August may feature a pretty brutal heatwave as upper ridge builds northward to Iowa & Ontario from Texas & our soils continue to dry, releasing water.

94-100 is possible with +110 heat indices in such a pattern.

August 2020 temperature anomalies:

September-October-November average anomalies:

Looks warmer than normal overall right through next December.

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