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March 22, 2 AM Weather Forecast Update

Rain & some snow.....

Posted: Mar 22, 2020 1:34 AM
Updated: Mar 22, 2020 2:32 AM

Highs Saturday with lots of clouds & a few spotty bits of snow only ran 32-37.

Lows in the 20s tonight will give way to 30s to 40 Sunday.

Sunday-Sunday night is a bit complicated.

There is agreement on at least some very minor accumulating wet snow on grassy areas, rooftops, decks, car wind shields, trees & other elevated surfaces in the area (possibly some sleet at the onset), with best potential of accumulation in the northwestern/northern half of the viewing area.  Question is how much falls & how far south accumulation gets in the area.

This will be tied to how much evaporative cooling occurs.  The more there is, the more snow over rain there will be.

Accumulation also depends on how quickly the transition to rain occurs, which is tied to how long evaporative cooling hangs on.

It is a tricky forecast......

So.....model guidance:

U.S. HRW WRF-ARW:  Up to 2" north, 0.5-1" Tippecanoe County, less than 0.5" south.

U.S. HRW NMMB:  1-2" for much of the viewing area, but less than 1" along & south of I-74.

U.S. HRW WRF-NSSL:  1-1.5" northwest half & less than 1" elsewhere & no accumulation along & south of an Attica to Lafayette southside to Frankfort line.

U.S. HRRR:  Nearly all rain with brief non-accumulating sleet or snow with rain at first.  It does show area of 1-3.5" snow in Missouri & less than 1" in central Illinois.

U.S. RAP:  0.5" or less of snow in northern Newton & Jasper counties.

U.S. NAM 3km:  1-1.5" northwestern half (2" along the Kankakee River in the far north) & less than 1" elsewhere & no accumulation south of an Attica to southside of Lafayette to Rossville to near Galveston to Amboy line.

Canadian RDPS:  1-2" northwest 3/4 of area & sharp decrease to less than 1" to nothing with southeastward extent. 
No accumulation shown from near Veedersburg to New Richmond to near Rossville to south of Kokomo & southward.

United Kingdom UKMET:  1-2" area with with a couple +2" amounts possible in our southwest.

U.S. GFS:  1" over less area-wide.

Canadian GDPS:  1-2" northwestern 2/3 of the area with sharp cut-off to less than 1" & then little/nothing with southeastward extent.  Isolated +2" possible in far northwest near the Kankakee River.

German ICON:  Less than 1" along & north of US 24.  Any accumulation south of there is very localized & just a brief dusting.

So, based on this, analog, apparent temperatures & dry air prior to precipitation & timing of precipitation, looks like:

1.  Precipitation begins to come in around midday, gradually overcoming dry air.  If it is TOO dry & much of it is virga, then overall precipitation amounts, whether it be snow or rain, will be reduced.  The same amount of sleet should occur with the precipitation getting to the ground.

2.  Should begin as some sleet for part of the area.

3.  Should transition to some snow.

4.  Snow should then transition to rain from south to north with time as the cooling effects of the precipitation falling through the dry air will be overcome.

5.  The northwestern & far northern areas will be last to see snow change to rain.

6.  1" of snow or less is possible, mainly north of Indiana 18.  Up to 1.5" may fall in northern Newton, Jasper & northern Pulaski counties.

We will monitor to see if more in the way of accumulating snowfall occurs & it occurs farther southward.  Again, it is tricky & the wet-bulbing cooling with the dry air is a key feature.

Any rain should taper to some drizzle tomorrow night & after highs of 36-40, then cooling to 32-35 Sunday, temperatures Sunday night should run 35-38.

Winds will reach 5-14 mph from an east-southeast to east direction, followed by a light (from the east to northeast) to calm wind tomorrow night.

Patchy to areas of fog are possible tomorrow night with rainfall going to drizzle.

Monday looks gray with some early drizzle & highs in the 40s.

Tuesday looks gray with rain overspreading the area (& some wet snow north of our area).

With east-southeast to east, then northeast winds becoming strong (20-32 mph late), highs should in the 40s.

Some periods of rainfall (& a few t'storms) mid to late next week will occur as warm front lifts northward.

Much warmer, windy weather at the end of next week will overspread the entire area with highs 68-72.

The risk of some severe weather will also arrive.

Much colder weather should follow.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
47° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 40°
Few Clouds
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Hi: 49° Lo: 33°
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Hi: 47° Lo: 31°
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Hi: 49° Lo: 32°
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Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
44° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
47° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 39°
44° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 36°
44° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 37°
A much cooler day with strong winds and some late-day showers.
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