March 21, 3:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

2019 is becoming know as year of the flood already as record snow & a sudden flip to warmth with rain brings epic flooding for many areas of U.S. For us, it is this pesky Nor'Easter that is altering our forecast, but spring flip is now showing up for next week.

Posted: Mar 21, 2019 1:50 PM
Updated: Mar 21, 2019 8:44 PM

After record snowfall this winter in the Rockies to Plains & now spring warmth at the flip of a switch with rain, 2019 is quickly becoming the year of the flood.  Historic, epic flooding is occurring now from Wyoming to southern Canada, southward to the Mississippi Valley.  Flooding is even occurring in Washington State as historic warmth for the time of year sends mountain snow melting quickly & early.

It is actually in the mid 50s right now at Fort McMurray, in northern Canada & mid 60s in Wyoming to Colorado, Nebraska.  It is warmer at Hay River, Northwest Territorities than here right now.  It is 52 there & 44 here at West Lafayette.

This is a 4 p.m. image (below) from Fort McMurray in far northeast Alberta.

Note the massive snowmelt, all of the standing water & beautiful blue skies.  Also note was appears to be trees budding on the right a good 1.5 months early.  It is 65 degrees there right now.  It has been record warm for the month of March for a least 4 consecutive days now.

The number of warm units as a measure of vegetation advancement in spring is higher in the Northwest Territories than it is in our area right now for March.

This is our nemesis, the big Northeast storm with heavy rain, flooding, high winds, beach erosion & heavy snowfall.

Note how the impacts of it occur well to the west into our area with clouds & spotty rain/snow even to tomorrow morning-midday with chilly, windy weather.

This will ruin our expected nice Friday weather.  It won't be terrible, but won't be nice & springy either.  I have seen memes online from meteorologists & climatologists alike bashing this storm from halting & diminishing the extension of the Midwest & Ohio Valley warm-up.

One climatologist just showed a map of CPC temperatures shown above, then suddenly below normal with "NOOOOOOOOOO!" on the top of it!

With northwest winds 20-30 mph (wind chills 20-25 a.m., then 38-43 p.m.), skies will be cloudy with some spotty rain/snow in the morning-midday, followed by some clearing.  Highs should run 44-50.

This after some clearing for us today tonight with highs 40s to 50 with lows 30-34.

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This is like Michigan State losing to Bradley today & you have a complete shift in your bracket.

Indeed, the East Coast storm is Bradley & it has been a snowball effect to keep the best warmth west of us. Bradley could be a bracket buster if they win. The weather bracket was broken.

I hedged by bets on 60s & warmth for days with no East Coast storm based on analysis of climatology, strength of the upper ridge & the likely bet that the record-breaking ridge would move into our area. It is rare we do not see more effects of such a ridge.

Such is bracketology, such is meteorology. Michigan State is the mathematical favorite, as is warm ridge is the mathematical favorite, but our weather had an upset.

It will finally get the boot with time over the weekend & next week.

The really nice, record warmth should stay northwest of our area, but that is exactly what is helping to trigger the epic flooding.  So, it is a double-edged sword.

The best day for us will be Saturday with lots of sunshine, less wind & warmer temperatures (50s).  Sunday looks good, but clouds will be on the increase rapidly Sunday with increasing winds & showers by afternoon as Plains systems arrives.

So, if you have plans to be outside, Saturday is your day.  After a frosty start with 20s, 50s are likely. 

Rainy weather Sunday pm to night will end as brief snow Monday, windy conditions & sharply colder weather.

As quickly as it turns cold, we warm up very rapidly again.

Strong southerly to southwesterly winds up to 33 mph will accompany more clouds & increasingly potential of showers & t'storms.

The main cold front & upper trough are projected to pass Saturday morning, March 30. 

The main severe weather corridor Friday-Friday night will run Iowa to Texas, eastward to Missouri & Arkansas.

We will tend to get the leftovers of the severe weather.

With temperatures in the 60s early Saturday with decent shear & dynamics, we will monitor for MARGINAL RISK of severe weather perhaps.

It looks like any SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK will remain west & southwest of us (right now).

Data suggests another brief, sharp cool down March 31-April 1 with a few flurries intially & highs in the 40s & lows in the 30s, then 20s.

Warmth should return quickly in early April.

T'Storms are possible around April 6.  Warmth should keep going overall to mid-April.

Data continues to suggest mid-month cool-down with the last widespread freezes of the spring.

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