March 21, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on another temperature rollercoaster & more rain, snow, wind & severe weather risk ahead.

Posted: Mar 21, 2020 11:26 AM
Updated: Mar 21, 2020 4:07 PM

Storm surveys continue, but two tornadoes confirmed in southern Illinois from March 19.

Note the amount of severe weather way up in northern New York to even southern Quebec yesterday!

Highs reached:

63 Mt. Washington Airport, New Hampshire

63 Portland, Maine

65 St. Remi, Quebec (it is 24 degrees as of 1:12 p.m. now!)

68 Burlington, Vermont

68 Boston, Massachusetts

74 Syracuse, New York

79 La Guardia Airport-New York City, New York

81 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

81 Buchannon, West Virginia

81 Wilmington, Delaware

81 Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

82 Hagerstown, Maryland

82 Washington D.C. (Reagan Airport)

86 Raleigh, North Carolina

87 Petersburg, Virginia

88 Richmond, Virginia

88 Newport News, Virginia

88 Danville, Virginia

88 Norfolk, Virginia

88 Greensboro, North Carolina

89 Columbia, South Carolina

With some breaks in the clouds & a few flakes overnight, lows ran 24-30.  North to north-northeast winds gusted up to 37 mph.

Low clouds dominate the area now with a few breaks at times.

There have been a couple snowflakes around at times & a few isolated snow flurries/snow showers are possible today.

However, clouds will break for sunshine at times.

Highs in the 34-39 range are likely with a northeast wind at 9-15 mph.

Skies completely clear tonight with an east-northeast to northeast wind at 5-10 mph.  Lows of 23-27 are likely with wind chills in the teens to lower 20s.

Winds should be light enough for a good frost given the wet soil conditions.

We should cloud up tomorrow pretty quickly & rain & even some sleet & snow should overspread the area. 

As precipitation falls through dry air, we should see good evaporative cooling.  Even in Greater Lafayette, after reaching 41-44, we should evaporatively cool to 36-38 as we saturate & precipitation reaches the ground.

As it reaches the ground, a period of sleet is possible over the area, even at 40 or the 40s prior.  It should then change to mostly rain. 

However, in the northwestern to northern counties, the sleet may then change to brief period of snow as the cooling will be stronger & antecedent surface temperatures will be cooler there anyway.

Should this occur, the snow should change to rain over a short period of time.  Nonetheless, a quick 1" or less of grassy to elevated surface accumulation is possible in our northwestern to northern areas, largely north of U.S. 24.

This would all occur Sunday afternoon to evening.

Models do not agree on duration of snow, nor the brief accumulation, which seems to be tied to degree of evaporative cooling & the temperatures just prior to the onset of the precipitation as you can see below.

We will monitor, but I think sleet to rain south of 24 & some sleet to snow to rain mostly north of 24 seems good right now (with brief 1" or less accumulation possible) as the wording.

U.S. NAM 3km model as snow occurring a bit farther to the south (as far south as Greater Lafayette):

U.S. NAM 3km projected snowfall accumulation:

U.S. HRRR model (has 100% rain):

U.S. HRW WRF-ARW model:

U.S. HRW NMMB model:

U.S. GFS model:

Canadian GDPS model:

High-resolution European model:

U.S. HRW WRF-NSSL model:

United Kingdom UKMET model:

Canadian RDPS model:

German ICON model:

Any rain should taper to drizzle (with some fog) before ending near midday Monday (though NAM model wants to end is as light snow).

Monday PM should remain cloudy with late-day highs of 45-49 after 38-42 in the morning with a calm wind becoming north to north-northwest at 5-7 mph.

Rain returns Tuesday with an east wind & highs 44-49 (after morning lows 39-42) with accumulating wet snow possible northwest of our area.

East winds at 10-20 mph become east-northeast in the evening & increase to 20-30 mph.

Rain should end Tuesday night with northeast wind 20-30 mph decreasing to 10-20 mph.  Lows of 38-42 are likely.

Wind should go calm after 5 a.m. as warm front moves with a period of some fog possible.

Once the warm front shifts northward, we should skyrocket from 40-44 early Wednesday morning to 55-60 midday Wednesday.

Wednesday highs of 57-65 are possible from north to south with wind shift to southeast & south at 10-20 mph.

Wednesday night looks warm with a few showers & t'storms with 60-65 & south winds at 15-25 mph.

We look warm (60s to lower 70s possible) & windy at the end of next week with the risk of storm & some severe weather risk.

Current parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for our area (with ENHANCED to MODERATE parameters Oklahoma, Texas to Arkansas prior), but we will await official SPC forecasts.

Colder air should follow with potential of brief rain/snow, then sudden warm-up with some severe weather risk as we end March & begin April.  Best severe risk seems to be setting up for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas to Louisiana & Mississippi, however.

Colder air should follow with freezing in early April with even a few brief flakes.

There is a trend for three rounds of severe weather risk April 15-25 with the warmest weather since early October with our first 80 or +80 temperatures.

After some below normal rainfall in early April, overall, rainfall looks above normal mid to late April.

Rainfall latter half of April:

Latter half of April pattern is warm & humid in the East & cold, wet & snowy in the High Plains & Intermountain West.

Some big snows & blizzards are likely in the Rockies (including Denver) & High Plains (including Rapid City & Scottsbluff).

Some late freezes may occur in the Texas Panhandle.

This is a pattern conducive to rounds of severe weather (including bouts of tornadoes) in the southern Plains to Midwest, Great Lakes.

Colder pattern should overspread our area as we begin May with potential frost here.

We should begin to dry out for a bit here in early May, but rivers will likely be flooding into early May in the area after the wetness & storminess in the latter half of April.

After all of the warmth in that stormy pattern, trees should be foliating nicely & Flowering Dogwoods at their peak for "Dogwood Winter".

A very brief window for some field work for farmers may develop in early May before it turns wet again.

Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Lafayette
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Danville
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Frankfort
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Cloudy Monday With A Few Flurries
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