Working on this....more soon..
Tornado count from the outbreak last week stands at 45. Thankfully, only 4 people were injured. So far, none of the tornadoes have been classified at EF3 or higher, but surveys & analysis continues. These numbers may change as more tornadoes are added & potential of EF3 damage being found. The Wayne County, Mississippi to Marengo County, Alabama shows borderline EF3 damage with a preliminary 36.5-mile path.
Highs today reached 63-70 for a beautiful end to the weekend after 54-62 Saturday (with sunny skies!).
Both days have featured extremely low dew point (very dry air). This has greatly helped to dry soils after heavy rainfall for much of the area last week.
37-45 tonight will give way to 67-72 Monday with continued increasing & thickening clouds & south winds 10-25 mph. 50 to the 50s should follow tomorrow night with south-southeast winds 10-15 mph.
Mostly cloudy skies & 66-72 is expected Tuesday with a few bands of scattered showers during the day. It will be a windy day with south-southeast winds 25-38 mph.
Cold temperatures aloft with a good deal of shear with some surface CAPE should result in a line of storms that develops in Missouri & pivots through Illinois in the afternoon-evening.
Parameters suggests SLIGHT RISK for northeastern Missouri & part of Illinois with even potential of a couple of tornadoes.
It does appear the line will weaken as it moves into our area Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning, but risk of a couple isolated severe storms is still there. At this point, it appears that locations west of US 421 would have that risk.
We will monitor.
Wednesday should feature sinking air with sunshine, strong southwest winds 25-44 mph & highs 67-76.
Rainfall with storms returns Thursday afternoon-evening & highs 65-71. Winds will run southwest to then southeast & increasing to 20-30 mph.
An isolated severe storm or two is possible in our southeastern areas, otherwise a bigger corridor of robust severe weather risk will develop across the South to the Ohio Valley.
If storm slows down & tracks more to the northwest, then our severe weather risk will go up.
Tornado event is likely across the South with potential of a strong, long-track tornado or two.
A total of 0.75-2" of rainfall is expected Tuesday to Friday AM.
Cooler weather should follow Friday with highs in the 50s (& northwest winds 15-25 mph), then some showers & storms return Saturday late to Sunday. An isolated severe storm is possible with highs in the 60s.
East-southeast winds will become southeast, then southwest at 20-30 mph, then eventually northwest at 20-35 mph as cooler air comes in later Sunday.
Brief cooler air should follow with highs in the 50s, followed by warm, windy weather (60s to 70s [80?]) with return of showers & storms by March 31-April 2.
Early half of April looks active with opportunities for severe storms & heavy rainfall. Temperatures will run above to well-above normal.
Period of mid-April is trending cooler with some frost & freezing on some nights. It also looks much drier.
However, wetter, more active weather with storms & above normal temperatures returns in later April.