Rainfall totals varied from 0.21-2" lastnight to this morning. Much of the area saw 0.40-0.75"
The lightest totals were in central & northern Tippecanoe County. The heaviest amounts occurred in southwestern Fountain County with a pocket of up to 2" of rainfall.
There were even a few isolated t'storms. There was a clap of thunder around 1 a.m. at West Lafayette.
Flood Warnings are up on the Wabash in Tippecanoe County & southwest Fountain County. Forecast to crest around 1-1.5' above flood stage in Tippecanoe County & up to 2.5' above flood stage in southwest Fountain County
Rainfall has shifted eastward & most additional rain & t'storm action will occur south of our area today, tonight & into tomorrow.
You can see the risk of severe weather as far north as southern Indiana later today & into tonight (heavy rainfall also possible).
Clearing trend contiues in the area. It is sunny in our northwestern counties, but overcast in the rest of the area.
Temperatures range from 44-49.
Note all of the t'storms & the severe risk south of us this evening & tonight.
For us, areas that have cleared or will clear should cloud back up. A few isolated showers are possible later this evening to early tonight.
As skies begin to clear, some patchy to areas of fog may develop. With moisture on pavement from any previous showers, a few patches of black ice may develop.
Lows of 30-35 are likely with frost for a good chunk of the area.
Some increasing clouds will occur in the morning to midday period of Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Winds will turn to the southwest at 10-20 mph.
Cold front should pass near midday with an isolated shower or two.
Once cold front passes, we should turn mostly sunny to sunny with a wind shift to the west to west-northwest.
The development of cumulus clouds should occur in the afternoon behind the front for the northern 3/4 of the viewing area with these howling west to west-northwest winds will run 25-40 mph.
An isolated sprinkles or shower could occur from the cumulus clouds in our northern counties that really build up.
Highs of 47-54 are likely.
The wind will decrease to 5-15 mph Tuesday night as it shifts to the west-southwest.
We should turn mostly clear Tuesday night until after 3 a.m. when clouds will increase.
Lows should drop to 28-31.
A little, quick-moving clipper system should pass Wednesday morning in the 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. time frame.
Cold rain & sleet showers (with even a few flakes) are possible with it.
However, in the north (north of US 24), a period of snow is possible with it & it may come down hard enough for less that 1" of accumulation.
However, the grass being whitened will not last long. We will turn mostly sunny to sunny with highs in the 40s. West to northwest winds will run 20-30 mph.
High & mid clouds will increase in the south & these clouds will move northward Wednesday evening-night as winds diminish.
Lows will vary from 26 to 34 from north to south.
A cold front will pass Thursday afternoon with a few isolated showers with mostly cloudy skies.
It will be a windy day with southwest winds becoming west, then northwest at 25-40 mph.
Highs will run in the 40s to lower 50s.
Winds look very strong Thursday night to Friday. Some gusts may reach 50 mph from the northwest.
Skies will clear Friday (after mostly cloudy skies & a few flurries & snow showers Friday morning) with highs only in the 30s to around 40. The winds will make it feel like the 20s.
The strong winds shoudl diminish rapidly after 7 p.m. Friday evening. In fact, by 12 a.m., they should be from the north-northeast at 4 mph at that point.
Saturday should cloud up with light east to southeast wind early turning to the south-southwest by afternoon. That south-southwest wind will increase rapidly to 20-30 mph by evening
Highs in the 40s are likely Saturday, but will reach as high as the 60s by Sunday-Monday.
Rain is likely Sunday night-Monday with a few isolated t'storms. South-southwest then northwest winds may reach 25-45 mph.
I still cannot rule out a random, brief, wet snowfall in the March 11-17 time frame.
Then the warmth is on!
It will be wet, snowy & unusually cold in the western U.S. to southern & western Canada, but the East will be blazing by March standards.
We will have some nights that do not drop below 60 with multiple days in the 70s likely. At this point, looks like Indy & southward could hit 80. We will see if we can get 80 this far north.
If we can do that, it would be the first 80 in March since 2012 at West Lafayette.
We hit 82 on April 1, 2010. However, before 2012 you have to go back to 2007 to find an 80 or greater in March.
We almost had an 80 in March in 2003 & 2004, as well as 1995, but you really have to go back to 1998 to find any 80 prior to 2007.
Both 1990 & 1992 had historic warm spells in early- to mid-March with up to a week in the 70s, but no 80 was recorded.
Prior to 2012 (back to 1985), only 1986 saw temperatures reach well into the 80s in March. In a big warm spell in late March 1986, we peaked at 84.
Over the many year now, severe weather in March has been centered over Dixie Alley in the South.
This year, it shows the tendency for Plains to Midwest severe weather in latter March.
You can see the development of severe weather risk, some of it substantial to significant, in latter March.
It will turn much colder after this system of warmth, heavy rainfall (1-2.5" possible) & severe weather risk.
I cannot rule out a random, brief, wet snowfall after this warmth for one big last winter hurrah with multiple days of hard freezing.
That is the bad news. We may have a night at 18-25 that wipes out the Star & Saucer Magnolias beginning to blossom.
This would be at the end of March, but the cold may last into the start of April.
After the stretch of cold, wet, warmer & stormy weather should return after April 4.
Once the warmth begins building back in, it should occur pretty quickly.
Spring (March-April-May) still averages out to above normal precipitation:
The overall trend for spring is colder West, warmer East with the heavy rainfall & storminess at & east of the transition zone between the two.
This spring look more active severe weather-wise here than the past three springs.
Summer (June-July-August) still averages out to below normal precipitation.
Looks like after July 15 looks drier than before July 15 from the current data available.
Cooler West, hotter East is the trend for summer as a whole.