March 18, 12:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on rain, storms, some severe weather risk, wind & big temperature rise & fall (& some snow to throw into the mix).

Posted: Mar 18, 2020 12:01 PM
Updated: Mar 18, 2020 1:50 PM

It is an active forecast with Blizzard Warnings parts of the Plains & Rockies.  Winter Weather Advisories are dropping to rather low elevations in southern California & Arizona.

So, it is a wintry side, but there is also a severe side.  On that severe side, flooding is underway in Texas.

Any isolated severe risk will be well southeast or southwest of our area today.  ENHANCED RISK in Texas & Oklahoma is up for later today & into tonight.

Steady rain & potential of isolated thunder will taper to drizzle this evening.  This will be followed by the development of areas of dense fog.

Temperatures are 40-46 as of 12:30 p.m. with highs expectred at 42-51 today & lows of 40-46 tonight.

However, temperatures should begin to rise later tonight to 47-60 north to south by tomorrow mid-morning.

Wave of rain & a few t'storms is likely Thursday around midday to part of the afternoon.  An isolated hailer is possible.

Once this exits, some breaks in the clouds may appear with strong south to south-southwest winds & temperatures surging to 65-70 by late afternoon-evening.

South to south-southwest winds may gust to 35 mph later in the day.

Severe t'storms (numerous supercells) should develop from southern Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin & Iowa, through Illinois to Texas & Louisiana (even western Tennessee) in the evening.

Watches may line up across this entire zone.

As for us, We may reach 66-72 with winds increasing to gusts of 33-45 mph from the south-southwest by late evening & into the night.

A line or two of some with some discrete embedded supercells & perhaps an evolving embedded LEWP (S-shape in the line or lines) or two is possible.

Severe risk still looks to be in the 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. time frame.

A couple of brief tornadoes, severe gusts would be the main severe threat.  An isolated hailer is possible.  Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

Lows temperatures will likely not drop below 60 for much of the area.

I have no doubt the SLIGHT RISK will be expanded to cover much or all of our area in the next SPC update.

An ENHANCED RISK is possible in future upgrades southwest of our area or possibly into area.

Once the storms pass, some clearing may appear with warm, windy conditions with +30 mph gusts from the southwest.

Then, gusty, low-topped, narrow squall line of showers & t'showers will race through in the morning.  An isolated severe gust or two cannot be ruled out with this.

This will occur with the cold front.

Ahead of it, temperatures will run in the 60s to possible as high as 70, but temperatures will drop very rapidly behind it.  A 20- to 25-degree drop in 1 hour cannot be ruled out!

After such a warm start, we may be 34-40 by 1 p.m. with low clouds & howling northwest winds.  A few sprinkles to flurries are possible.

A period of gusts 40-50 mph are possible, followed by winds decreasing to gusts of 30-35 mph.

1-3" of rainfall is likely today to Friday morning.  We still need to watch that band of rainfall with +3" to even +4".

Temperature should tank into the 20s Saturday night with potential of a few flurries & wind chills near 10 to the teens.

Saturday looks cold & rather breezy with a couple flurries/snow showers in the morning, then partly to mostly cloudy with highs 35-40.

After mostly sunny skies, clouds should increase Sunday with highs 40-45 (after lows in the 22-27 range in the morning).

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