Tornado watches & warnings are up in Texas to Oklahoma, while Flash Flood Warnings are up in Arizona. Flash Flood Watches are also up Texas to Missouri, while Blizzard Warnings are in effect Colorado to Nebraska with High Wind Watches & Wind Advisories laid out in-between. This is a strong, multi-faceted storm that has been showing up in analog model data & analysis for more than three weeks.
The first piece has gone through our area, followed by the main core of the deep, very large upper trough swinging through tomorrow to Friday.
Highs today ran 43-49.
Rainfall totals for today are running 0.30-0.80"
Now it is drizzle & fog for much of the area with temperatures 41-47. There some rain in Newton, Jasper & Pulaski counties moving eastward as of 9 p.m. & that will exit with time.
For the night, areas of dense fog will develop with mist & light drizzle. Temperatures should drop/hover to 40-47, then rise to 42-52 late.
Fog should disperse with cloudy skies, followed by a wave of rain & some storms Thursday late morning to afternoon. This should should exit by later afternoon-evening. An isolated severe storm or two is possible (hail).
It will turn windy from the south (gusts +30 mph late in the day) & much warmer.
Late day highs of 66-71 are likely after a temperature rise through the 50s to lower 60s over the previous hours.
The SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK for severe weather comes in tomorrow night/early Friday morning in the 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. time frame. Stay tuned, as it could end up being earlier. There is some data suggesting this with more of a 9 p.m. to 3 a.m. time frame.
With that timing, have a way to be awakened if a warning is issued for your area in the middle of night. Make sure your phone is charged with our Precision 18 Weather app or some weather app & by your bed. Or have a NOAA Weather Radio up & available in your room.
A couple of tornadoes, a few severe gusts, isolated large hail & locally-heavy rainfall are all possible.
I looks like one or two lines/bands of discrete supercells gradually congealing into more in the way of LEWPs &/or bowing segments.
Some storms may train, resulting in heavy rainfall.
Also, with storms oriented west-southwest to east-northeast, with a more southerly low-level flow (storm movement perpendicular to the surface & low-level flow), the risk of a couple of tornadoes occurring goes up. We would need to get that CAPE nearer to the surface for tornadogenesis, which is possible with temperatures 60s to 70 & dew points 61-63.
Low-level flow will be strong with surface winds gusting +40 mph & 5,000' low-level jet winds at +60 knots feeding the cells (& no other or very few cells south of us impeding the moist, unstable flow).
After this, clearing takes place & it looks warm & windy. Sunshine is possible Friday morning with +40 mph southwest gusts & 60s to 70.
Then, line of gusty, low-topped showers/t'showers passes (isolated severe gust or two possible) & temperatures crash quickly through the 50s to the 40s with low clouds. Period of gradient gusts of +40 mph may continue for a bit.
An additional 0.70-3" of rainfall is possible (to add to what we have already seen). We still need to watch for the potential of a narrow corridor of +3" or even +4" of rainfall to develop.
Some spotty rain to rain/snow & then spotty snow is likely Friday to Friday night.
Temperatures will plunge through the 40s to the 30s Friday & then 24-27 range Friday night. Winds chill of 10-17 are likely with strong northwest to north winds gusting +35 mph at times.
A few snow showers are possible Sunday night-early Monday morning, followed by a few spotty showers.
Rain is likely Tuesday with breezy to windy conditions from the east to southeast.
Rain & a few t'storms are possible next Wednesday as warm front migrates northward.
Next Thursday, March 26, looks windy to very windy & warm with severe weather risk in the p.m. Highs may reach 67-74.
Preliminary parameters suggests another round of SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK (tornado, wind, hail) next Thursday with possibly MARGINAL RISK making it to areas along & south of I-74 Wednesday evening (hail). Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.
Another shot of colder air with some rain/snow is possible, followed by sudden warm-up to 60s to 70 with some severe weather risk just as we exit March & begin April.
Much colder weather with even a few flakes should follow that fast-moving system, as well (with 20s possible at night in early April).