March 16, 11:15 AM Weather Forecast Update

Rain, storms & warmer weather ahead.

Posted: Mar 16, 2020 11:35 AM
Updated: Mar 16, 2020 1:48 PM

Temperatures are running 36-43 over the area.

Some scattered showers are moving in, but they are beginning as sleet in places as rain drops fall through layer of dry air where they evaporatively cool that layer & freeze into a pellet.

Between 750 & 840 mb is a layer of dry air (red & green lines fan apart).

Highs today will run in the 40s.

Some scattered showers will be with us today & a few into tonight.  They should be completely out of our area by 7 a.m. Tuesday morning.

However, patchy fog is possible tonight & some patchy light drizzle may accompany it to as late as 8:45 a.m. Tuesday.

Lows of 38-41 are likely.

A gradual clearing trend is expected tomorrow, though I am not 100% buying it.   Let's monitor.  Low clouds may get trapped & only clearing be brief.  Hopefully this is not the case & we see it turn mostly sunny as some data suggests, but I am not really confident of that right now.  Winds will run west-northwest at 5-10 mph.

Patchy fog is likely tomorrow night & even if we do clear, we will turn cloudy again with calm winds becoming east at 5 mph.

Widespread rain is likely Wednesday.  Isolated t'storm is possible.  Rain may begin to arrive by dawn Wednesday in our western & northwestern counties.  There, it may begin as brief sleet/snow with temperatures in the 30s over the area.

Highs will run in the 40s to 50 late with east to southeast wind at 10-20 mph.

The rain & isolated t'storm potential should shut off Wednesday night with hours of dry time with rising temperatures to 52-61 north to south by early Thursday morning.  Winds will turn light as the warm front moves right over the area (& just south of the warm front), so a period of fog is possible late Wednesday night to Thursday morning.

Winds should pick up again to 10-15 mph by 9:45 a.m. Thursday morning from the south-southeast.

Winds will continue to increase to 20-30 mph by Thursday afternoon & turn to the south, then south-southwest.

Round of rain & some t'storms (isolated severe t'storm or two possible with mainly hail threat with parameters suggesting MARGINAL RISK of severe weather, but we will await official forecasts from SPC) should pass around midday to afternoon Thursday as another surge of warm air comes in.

Following this, temperatures should surge to 65-70 with south-southwest winds 25-40 mph.

The risk of some severe weather (wind, isolated, brief tornado) is with us Thursday night with temperatures in the 60s & strong south-southwest winds.  Parameters currently show SLIGHT RISK situation for the viewing area Thursday night.  We will await official SPC forecasts, however.

You can see the severe weather outbreak blow up in the Plains Thursday (possible core of ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK of severe weather) with this simulated infrared satellite image showing the red & dark red high cloud tops:

Here is the infrared simulated image for Thursday night in our area:

Behind the t'storms, we should get into the dry slot Friday morning to midday with sun & highs 67-73.  Southwest wind will be strong at 25-45 mph.

Here is the dry slot on the move eastward to our area for Friday morning-midday:

500 mb moisture shows the dry slot, as well with brief sun & warmth here:

A burst of high winds is possible with & immediately behind a low-topped line of showers & t'showers (isolated severe gust(s)?) comes through with the strong cold front Friday midday to early afternoon.

We may have a few hours of west to northwest winds 30-50 mph with isolated +50 mph gusts.

Temperatures will crash from 67-73 to 40-45 very rapidly.  In fact, we may very well drop from 67-73 around noon to 35-40 by 5:30 p.m. with some scattered rain/snow!

TOTAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY of 1-3" is possible.

Here comes the sharply-colder air with significant temperature drop over a period of a few hours Friday:

Some scattered snow showers & flurries are possible for part of Saturday night with lows 25-29.  Any accumulation would be a localized dusting.

Winds will decrease to 20-30 mph & turn to the north.

A few flurries & snow showers early Saturday should depart & Arctic hgih to our north should dominate Saturday-Sunday.

Highs will only run in the 30s to lower 40s with lows in the 20s. 

March 23-26 still appears to be a period of more active weather.

Period of snow/sleet is possible, followed by multiple rounds of rainfall as warm front moves northward.

A brief period of 60s to as high as the lower 70s is possible with risk of some severe weather (worst of the risk is southwest of our area, however). 

Parameters point to SLIGHT RISK here in the warm sector around March 26 with south-southwest winds 25-45 in that warm sector preceding the potential storms with some severe risk. 

You can see storms blowing up in Missouri & lifting northeastward via this infrared simulated image below.  This looks to occur as surface low deepens over Kansas en-route to southwestern Wisconsin as preceding rounds of rainfall lift northward through our area, northern Illinois & Michigan:

Gusts of up to 50 mph from the west to northwest are possible for a time behind the cold front as temperatures crash.

It is another situation of a very sharp cold front & strong to very strong gradient winds.

Much colder weather will follow with highs only in the 30s & 40s with potential of one system of some rain/snow in the March 27-31 time frame.

So we are not finished with snow yet, even to the end of March.

A brief surge of 60s should occur around April 1 or 2, otherwise, pattern looks quite cool into early April with freezing temperatures at night.

Precipitation trend is overall below normal, however.

Colder than normal:

Below normal precipitation as evidenced by the PWAT anomalies seen below (brown is below normal amount of water to squeeze out):

There is your brief warm-up to start April, but it shouldn't last long (note the remnants of the cold in the southeast U.S. & in Texas):

Overall cooler than normal mean temperatures should continue to mid-April with overall below normal precipitation.

Pattern should go warmer than normal & wetter than normal with increasing risk of severe weather once we reach mid-April & beyond.

Early- to mid-April temperature anomalies:

Second half of April temperature anomalies (I think the western U.S. should have blue on it for below normal temperatures, but the orange in the East looks good):

Wetter pattern should end up over our area.  I think we could encounter one or possibly two pretty big severe weather episodes in our area around or after the mid point of April with ENHANCED RISK(S) in the area or even MODERATE RISK(S) close to the area to our southwest.

This will likely coincide with the first 80-degree high of the year & the first 65-degree dew point for the area.

An April snowstorm is likely in the Rockies (including Denver) in this pattern.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 35°
Kokomo
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 34°
Rensselaer
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 32°
Fowler
Clear
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Hi: 49° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 32°
Williamsport
Clear
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Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 33°
Crawfordsville
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 30°
Frankfort
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 35°
Delphi
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 32°
Monticello
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 32°
Logansport
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 34°
A much cooler day with strong winds and some late-day showers.
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