Highs today ran 41-47.
Isolated light showers with patchy drizzle & patchy fog are likely tonight to early Tuesday with lows 35-39.
Some clearing is possible tomorrow with highs 47-54.
Patchy fog is likely tomorrow night with lows 30-35, followed by increasing clouds & temperatures rising to 33-36.
Rain is likely Wednesday with potential of an isolated t'storm. If it gets in here soon enough, it could start as brief sleet/snow in our northwestern counties Wednesday morning.
East to southeast winds of 10-20 mph will make for a driving, cold rain much of the day.
The rain should end Wednesday evening-early night & warm front should make it north of the viewing area.
Temperatures by 7 p.m. should run 41-55 from north to south over the area. By 12 a.m., temperatures of 50-61 are likely from north to south.
Wave of rain & storms is likely Thursday, followed by a couple more waves of rain & storms Thursday evening-night.
Isolated severe risk (MARGINAL) may go to scattered severe (SLIGHT). Better severe risk is west & southwest of us, however.
Locally-heavy rainfall is likely with some flash flooding possible.
Highs of 65-70 are likely Thursday & lows 60-65 Thursday night with strong south to southwest winds at 20-40 mph.
You can see the strong rising air motion as seen by the cold cloud tops in this simulate IR satellite image for Thursday night with the strong surface low over northwestern Missouri & southern Iowa:
Dry slot should arrive Friday morning to near midday, followed by passage of strong cold front. With the front a broken line of gusty, low-topped showers & t'showers are possible.
After highs of 66-72, temperatures should tank Friday afternoon with some spotty rain/snow to snow by late afternoon & into Friday night.
Temperatures may drop to 35-40 by 5:30 p.m.
Winds will be very strong at 30-45 mph with isolated gusts +50 mph from the west then west-northwest.
A total of 1-3" of rainfall is likely Wednesday morning-Friday, so ponding & areas of flash flooding will occur. Also, rivers & streams will likely reach or exceed flood stage.
Saturday looks cold & breezy after a few flurries/snow showers in the morning with temperatures 27-31.
With some clearing, highs of 35-40 are likely.
Sunday looks warmer at 40-45 after 21-26 in the morning, followed by increasing clouds & rain (beginning as brief snow & sleet) overspreads the area Monday.
A couple to three more rounds of rainfall are likely Tuesday-Wednesday as we warm with warm front advancing northward.
Severe weather is possible Thursday, March 26 with warm temperatures in the 60s to 70s possible.
Simulated IR imagery shows the upper low with an all-out blizzard in Colorado to western Nebraska & strongly diffluent jet over our area with storms.
More heavy rainfall is possible, which will result in more ponding, some flash flooding & further rises in river & stream levels.
Much colder air should arrive behind it with another round of strong west to northwest winds with gusts +45 mph possible.
Brief spurt of rain/snow is possible & freezing nights may be followed by a sudden warm surge near the start of April. Temperatures may briefly surge to the 60s to 70.
There is some potential now of severe weather with robust, quick-moving strong surface low & cold front around this time. Dynamics & shear look strong, even if instability is not too high.
We will monitor.
Colder weather should follow with frost & freezing.
The overall trend April 1-14 is for below normal precipitation & below normal temperatures.
Robust severe risk is looking possible as we reach the mid-point of April or a bit beyond with our first 80 & first dew point as high as 65.
The overall trend April 15-25 is for above normal precipitation & above normal temperatures
