Yesterday saw two lines of storms in our region, both producing severe weather outbreaks.........southeast & northwest of the viewing area.
The confirmed tornado count continues to mount.
Snow & rain is over the area with temperatures falling to 34-38 now. Winds are still strong with gusts 25-32 mph.
Any slushy accumulation of snow will be very light & brief. Any rain/snow should taper this afternoon.
Some breaks in the clouds tonight with diminishing winds will allow temperature to drop into themid to upper 20s, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow with highs in the 37-41 range.
Skies will turn cloudy tomorrow night.
A wave of snow is possible for part of the viewing area 5 a.m. to noon time frame.
Models suggest a narrow band of 1-2" grassy accumulations tapering to less than 1" to nothing elsewhere with temperatures 29-32. We will monitor. There are still uncertainties, but potential is there.
If there is accumuation, it won't last long with highs of 37-42 in the afternoon.
After 20s Sunday night, some flurries & scattered snow showers are possible Monday with highs 37-41. With clearing, we may see quite a frosty, cold night Monday night with 19-25.
After sunshine Tuesday with 41-46, showers are possible Wednesday with cloudy skies & highs in the 40s. The showers may end as some flurries & snow showers Wednesday night. Lows will drop to near 33.
Pattern changes quite drastically after March 22 with warmth!
Also, storm system as the end of the month may bring severe weather. Note the severe weather risk (Supercell Composite) below shown, indicating this warmth, humidity & the storm system.
Model data is matching my analog now pretty well. This shows severe risk South Dakota to Texas eastward to Alabama to Indiana.
Bulls-eye of greatest severe risk is currently shaping up Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma.
(This is model data of the U.S. CFSV2 & European Union ECMWF models laid out from model expert Dr. Ryan Maue):
Cold pattern dominates to March 20.
Warmth gets in after March 20.
Brief burst of much colder weather should follow this nice burst of spring with t'storms & severe risk at the very end of March to very early April.
Surge of warmth still looks like a good bet in early April.
CFS model does not indicate this, but analog data does show tendency of cold wave mid-April with frost/freezing.
I am still going with that cold after the surge of warmth.
My thinking is more in line with the European model.
Nice blazing warmth in the analogs matches the CFS model for late April with taste of summer!
Now-end of April rainfall looks to average slightly-below normal for the area with around 85% of normal rainfall expected.
Normal now to the end of April is around 5". This would mean (knowing that there will be local variability) that 4.25" would be the average rainfall total for the area over the next 46 days.
- March 15, 3 PM Update: Outbreaks Northwest & Southeast of Us Yesterday.....Now Much Colder with Snow & Rain
- December 2, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update: Rain & Snow Showers & Colder Weather
- March 11, 11 PM Update
- March 3, 1 PM Weather Update: The Snow Outlook
- March 8, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update: Rain, Windy, Some T'Storms & Some Snow Ahead
- November 19, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Some Snow, Then a Warm-Up With Rain....Then Much Colder Again
- March 20, 1866 Tornado Outbreak
- December 3, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Colder with Snow Potential
- March 16, 1:15 PM Weather Update: Some Snow & Chilly Weather
- March 13, 1:30 PM Update