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March 14, 6:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your update on areas of ice on roadways tonight.

Posted: Mar 14, 2020 5:50 PM
Updated: Mar 14, 2020 6:34 PM

As of 6 p.m., temperatures are now beginning to drop again with some areas of rain/snow in the area.

Temperatures are 32-36 over the area.

I had 37 an hour ago & am now reading 35 with north-northeast wind at 7 mph.

Note the other & final area of snow & rain/snow in Illinois.

This will move eastward over the next couple of hours & with the sun angle getting lower in the sky & temperatures dropping to around 32 area-wide, 0.5" or less snow may accumulate.  It should fall as all snow with some big flakes (dendrites).

This also may begin to accumulate a bit on roadways, especially secondary roadways.  A coating or film may be laid down.

Once this ends, temperatures should drop into the 20s, so some slick areas on roadways (including black ice) may develop.

Indeed, winds will increase tonight to east-northeast winds at 15-25 mph, which will assist in drying pavement, but some slick areas are still possible.

Any precipitation should be completely out of the area very late evening.

Tomorrow should feature sun (with lake effect scatterred stratocumulus to cumulus clouds with mainly ties to Lake Erie actually), 40s & rather breezy conditions from the northeast, followed by 20s & frosty conditions tomorrow night.

Clouds still look to increase Monday with some showers by Monday night after highs in the 40s to lower 50s.

Any showers would be confined to Tuesday morning, followed by some clearing possible & highs in the 50s.

Wednesday features increasing clouds with rain by evening & highs in the 50s to around 60.

Rain & isolated t'storms Wednesday evening-night should exit Thursday morning with strong southeast winds, followed by a break.

Warm front should move north of our area by Thursday evening, resulting in warming temperatures with strong southerly winds with 60s to 70 possible.

Lots of showers & storms with severe risk should develop west & southwest of our area Thursday.

At this point, this looks to impact the area Thursday & into Thursday night.

Some severe weather risk (MARGINAL to SLIGHT) may develop.

It appears that Thursday night will be very warm with lows not dropping below 60 with strong south to southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph.

It is unclear when exactly best potential of severe will occur here as surface deepens (potentially rapidly & deeply) over Iowa.  It is unclear when exactly the cold front will pass.

So, severe risk (right now parameters look SLIGHT) will either peak after midnight Thursday night or at some point Friday.

If it is Thursday night-Friday morning, we may still have a dry slot Friday with strong southwest winds, sun & highs 70-75 before front slices through area with some low-topped showers & t'storms.

Meanwhile, a compact snowstorm with brief blizzard conditions with some thunder & lightning may occur in Iowa & parts of Minnesota to northwestern Wisconsin.

Much colder weather is likely Saturday, March 21 with northwest winds with gusts 35-45 mph with some low clouds & a few spits of rain/snow with highs 39-45.  20s are likely Saturday night with 40s Sunday, March 22.

Active weather should return Sunday night March 22 with potential of brief period of snow/sleet before changing to rain.  Precipitation will fall through layer of dry air with temperatures in the 33-37 (with brief wet-bulbing or evaporative cooling to 31-34) range, resulting opportunity for brief period of frozen precipitation north of north-advancing warm front.

You can see the dry air from 10,000' & lower & the saturation starting from that layer & working downward toward the 5,000' layer:

Then....saturation with precipitation (cooling process)..........warm air advection should eventually overcome the cooling & temperatures should rise, changing any sleet & snow to rain:

March 23-25 look windy & much warmer with periods of showers & storms with potential severe weather risk around March 25.

Much colder weather should follow with freezing temperatures & even some bits of rain & snow after March 25.

Brief warm-up to 60s should burst in around March 31, followed by another cool-down with frost & freezing possible.

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Warm up with more humidity conditions returning.....Storms returning too...
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