SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

March 14, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Zone of intense frontagenetical forcing has indeed laid up over area.

Posted: Mar 14, 2020 11:59 AM
Updated: Mar 14, 2020 1:42 PM

Indeed, band of intense frontagenetical forcing has laid up right over our area.  We have seen great moisture & perfect temperatures in the SGZ while a little jet streak assists in lift over that zone.  Also, the dynamic cooling has been idea with areas with the snow still hovering at 32-34, while it is 37-40 north of the area where it has not snowed.  Rochester is 37 right now, but Logansport is 32 with snow.

HRRR 00z run last night did end up being correct.  Some completely blew it, however & even the early morning 11z & 12z HRRR runs had trouble with how much snow would fall north of Indiana 18.  It actually had no snow at Kentland to Monticello, but 3-4" Benton & Tippecanoe counties.  So, this was one tough, extreme event to pin down.

That was the reason for showing all models & runs on the blog due to extreme disagreement & discontinuity.

There was no doubt there would be this band of heavier snow, question was where it would set up & we are the ones that one the lottery for the position.

So totals have exceeded 1.5", even 2" in the area.

A narrow band (in some places looks to be only 10 miles wide) from Bloomington, Illinonis, through West Lafayette & eastward appears to be yielding 3-4.2" so far.  Highest total of 4.2" reported in McLean County, Illinois.

I measured multiple times on the board & around the board & got 3.5" average at 11:15 a.m.  Depth as of 1:20 p.m. is down to 2.5-3.0" as melting continues.

There is a VERY SHARP cut-off to the now in our northeast & great snowfall total variability in the area.

Totals as of 1 p.m. as reported by spotters (keep in mind that some of these observations were taken at 10-11 a.m. this morning & melting has occurred since then):

4.0" 3 S Fowler

3.5" WLFI ob site

3-4" West Lafayette

3.3" Kokomo

3.0" Attica

2-3" Lafayette

2.5" Frankfort

2.5" Michigantown

2.5" 2 SW Monticello

2.0" East of Frankfort

2.0" Kentland

2.0" Greentown

2.0" Rossville

2.5" Earl Park

1.5" Wolcott

1.5" Veedersburg

1.5" Crawfordsville

1.5" Delphi

1.0" Fowler

0.5" Waveland

0.5" Logansport

Trace Renssealer

Trace Peru

0" Winamac

0" Twelve Mile

0 Denver

0 Rochester

Melting is occurring due to mid-March sun angle, even with the overcast.  Depths will continue to drop, despite snow still falling. 

Models have a change-over to rain/snow & even rain this afternoon, but I think that it is possible that it remains all snow for a chunk of the area.

Only additional accumuation would be less than 0.4" by late today before ending.  This would only occur as sun angle lowers.

Precipitation will completely end this evening.

Watch for some black ice tonight as temperatures drop to the 20s.  However, northeast wind at 15-25 mph will help to dry pavement.  This will drop wind chills into the teens with those 26-29 lows.

With lots of sun, the snow will melt rapidly tomorrow with highs in the 44-48 range with east-northeast winds at 10-25 mph.

After 25-28 Sunday night, we should reach 47-53 Monday with showers by late Monday evening-Monday night.

West Lafayette
Clear
71° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 71°
Kokomo
Clear
66° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 66°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
64° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 64°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
71° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 71°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
67° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 67°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
66° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 66°
Frankfort
Clear
66° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 66°
Delphi
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 65°
Monticello
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 65°
Logansport
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 64°
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