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March 14, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the rollercoaster ride from now to early May.

Posted: Mar 15, 2020 9:22 PM
Updated: Mar 15, 2020 11:02 PM

I did get one final total in my email this evening from one of our dedicated spotters, Marty in Otterbein.  He measured 3.1" for a total Saturday.

It is now plotted on th emap

Yes, we have warmth ahead with severe weather & heavy rainfall risk, but I do not think we are done with the flakes just yet for March!  I would not be surprised if there is a bit more accumulation down the road.

Highs Sunday ran 44-49, melting the snow away very quickly.

TONIGHT:

Clearing, then increasing clouds. Low 25-31 then rising to 30-34. East to east-southeast wind 3-5 mph.

TOMORROW:

Mostly cloudy to cloudy.  Isolated to scattered showers developing.  High 45-50. Southeast wind becoming southwest & increasing to 7-12 mph.

TOMORROW NIGHT:

Cloudy with scattered showers & patchy fog. Low 38-41. West-southwest wind 5-10 mph

TUESDAY:

Cloudy with a few AM showers with patchy fog, then gradual PM clearing. High 50-55. West-northwest wind 8-12 mph.

TOTAL RAINFALL MONDAY-TUESDAY AM: 0.01-0.11"

TUESDAY NIGHT:

Becoming mostly clear, then clouding up with some light snow/sleet/rain possible in west & northwest around dawn. Lows 30-36. East wind 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY:

Periods of rain likely (AM period of snow/sleet possible along & north of Indiana 18). Isolated t'storms. High 44-55 north to south. East to southeast wind 13-24 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

Periodic rain & isolated t'storms tapering late. Patchy fog. Low 37-50 north to south. East to southeast wind 5-15 mph.

THURSDAY:

Wave of showers & some t'storms in the morning to midday (isolated severe t'storm possible with hail risk), then mostly cloudy. Becoming windy. Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK of severe weather, but we will await SPC official forecasts in the coming days. East to southeast wind becoming south to south-southwest at 20-35 mph. Highs 62-70.

THURSDAY NIGHT:

Rain & t'storms likely. A couple/few severe storms possible after midnight (wind, isolated brief tornado(es)). Parameters currently suggest SLIGHT RISK, but we will await SPC official forecasts in the coming days. ENHANCED RISK may not be too far west or southwest of our area.  Windy. Lows 60-65. South-southwest wind 25-40 mph. 

FRIDAY:

AM rain & t'storms with a couple/few severe storms possible before 6 a.m. (wind, isolated brief tornado(es)), then clearing in dry slot. Turning very windy. Southwest winds 30-45 mph with isolated gusts to 55 mph.

Temperature should reach 67-74 around midday-early PM, followed by broken line of gusty, low-topped showers & t'storms with an isolated severe storm or two (wind) possible.

Temperatures then falling rapidly to 48-54 by 5 p.m. & 42-47 by 7 p.m. with west winds 30-45 mph with isolated gusts to 55 mph.

Parameters support SLIGHT RISK before 6 a.m., then POSSIBLY a pocket of MARGINAL central Illinois to Indiana for Friday midday. We will await official SPC forecasts.

Stay tuned for tweaks to this Wednesday-Friday forecast, as timing of all of these elements could shift.

TOTAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: 1-3" POSSIBLE

Analogs light up with severe weather probability for late week, especially just northwest, west & southwest of our area:

Analogs show pockets of potential of a significant tornado:

FRIDAY NIGHT:

Cloudy with some light rain/snow showers, then snow showers late. Windy to very windy. Lows 31-35. Northwest wind 25-45 mph. Wind chills 16-24.

SATURDAY (MARCH 21):

Mostly cloudy to cloudy with some scattered flurries & snow showers. Highs 35-39. Windy then breezy. North-northwest winds 25-40 mph becoming north at 15-30 mph, then 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT (MARCH 21-22):

Some clearing.  North wind becoming northeast 5-10 mph.  Lows near 25-30.

SUNDAY (MARCH 22): 

Becoming mostly sunny, then increasing clouds.  Northeast to east-northeast wind 10-15 mph.  Highs 40-45.

Another significant storm system with snow/sleet/rain to rain by Monday should be followed by windy to very windy, warm weather with periods of rain & storms. Some severe weather risk may return.

Significant severe weather risk appears over Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas & Louisiana with several tornadoes (some strong) possible.

Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

This would all occur in the March 23-25 time frame.

TOTAL RAINFALL MARCH 23-25:  1-2" POSSIBLE

Much colder weather should follow with freezing at night & potentially a system with some rain/snow & potentially even all snow for a while.

Brief little warm-up with 60s should suddenly arrive about March 31 before we turn colder again after that.

MJO is in pretty consistent cool phase in early April (Phase 1 to 2 to 3, then pivoting to a 4). 

This index & phase is based on where the convection or cluster of heavy rainfall will be near the Equator & its distance from the International Dateline, which is usually tied to sea surface temperatures in that region.

There will be some warmer days, but the overall mean temperature trend is for BELOW NORMAL temperatures early to mid-April.

Early April is trending a bit drier than normal, but increasing rainfall will occur in mid-April.

With colder than normal weather in the West & warmer than normal weather in the East, we should turn wetter & stormier (severe weather risk going way up) from mid to late April.

MJO phases go to 5, then the warm, wet, stormy Phase 6 (reaction in mid to late April in this MJO phase).

This index & phase is based on where the convection or cluster of heavy rainfall will be near the Equator & its distance from the International Dateline, which is usually tied to sea surface temperatures in that region.

Thinking these will be our first 80 highs of the year for a good chunk of the viewing area.

Warmer:

Wetter:

Thoughts are that burst of colder weather should come in after April 28 with early May with some frost at night & breezy to windy, cooler days.

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