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March 14, 10:45 AM Update

Sequence of events for the next 12 hours based on the latest analysis.

Posted: Mar. 14, 2019 10:05 AM
Updated: Mar. 14, 2019 11:27 AM

Line/band of rain & t'storms continues to progress through the viewing area.

There have been gusts up to 40 mph ahead of & with the line/band blowing in sheets of torrential rainfall with thunder & lightning.  Some brief flash flooding is possible.

We have cooled to the 50s to around 60 over the area with the rain & it is now completely overcast. 

However, note the sunshine appearing in eastern & central Illinois.  There, temperatures are rising rapidly.  Also note the two bands of enhanced cumulus clouds in central Illinois & eastern Missouri along & just ahead of the surface cold front.

Right now, all of the surface instability (good surface heating for t'storms [& much severe risk]) is in central Illinois where the sun is out.

Here, all of the instability is elevated or atop the cool stable layer here near the ground.  This brings you lightning & you can have some gusty winds (& hail in other situations), but it reduces any severe risk as the t'storms are rooted above a cooler, stable layer near the surface.

Low-level & effect bulk shear values (with dynamics) are very impressive for severe risk if the good instability is present.

Where the shear, dynamics & surface instability overlay, the severe weather indices are higher.

Note the tornado parameter in central Illinois.

The overall Craven-Brook Severe Parameter shows where the higher severe risk is currently located.

Current probability of +EF0 tornado (shear, dynamics combined with heating [instability] & other factors) is 15-21% in central Illinois.  Note the probabilities of near 40% moving into western Kentucky! 

The probabilities are not over our area right now because it is too cool, despite our very impressive shear & dynamics.

With this first intial line/band I DO think that severe risk will go up in southern, eastern Indiana & Kentucky to Ohio as heating gets underway.  Line should intensify quite a bit east of the viewing area.  Embedded supercells have posed risk of an isolated strong, longer-track tornado or two there.

What we need to watch is what happens in Illinois with the second line.  We also need to watch for any renegade t'storms that can form outside of that line.

Given the heating & sheared, dynamic environment, some severe weather is possible with any of those t'storms if they can really get going.

Note the morning-midday rain/t'storms departing, then the other line & any renegade t'storms ahead of it passing 1-4 p.m. with the sun out & much warmer weather (along with high non-t'storm winds).

Some severe weather is possible with main threat wind, then secondary isolated tornado risk, followed by hail & brief flash flooding.

You can see how the temperatures surge from the 50s to 60 to the 60s to 70s rapidly once the sun appears.

Once the storms pass, we should largely clear & cool with very windy conditions (from the southwest), followed by the arrival of low clouds & sharply colder weather with strong winds (from the west).

Gusty west winds & scattered rain/snow to scattered snow is likely tomorrow morning-midday with temperatures falling to the 30s.

Brief, light, local, grassy or elevated accumulation cannot be ruled out.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Overcast
65° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 65°
Kokomo
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 64°
Rensselaer
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 64°
Fowler
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 64°
Williamsport
Broken Clouds
67° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 59°
Feels Like: 67°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 64°
Frankfort
Overcast
66° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 66°
Delphi
Overcast
65° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 65°
Monticello
Overcast
65° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 65°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
65° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 65°
Storms late tonight.
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