March 13, 2:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on wet snow & then rainfall with severe weather risk, followed by a cool-down.

Posted: Mar 13, 2020 1:29 PM
Updated: Mar 13, 2020 3:29 PM

Peak measured wind gusts lastnight-early this morning:

46 mph Akron

42 mph 3 E Fowler

41 mph Covington

40 mph 3 E Attica

39 mph Round Grove; 2 W Rochester

38 mph Flora Municipal Airport

37 mph 5 E Amboy; Beard

36 mph Frankfort I-65/28

35 mph Monticello-White County Airport; Frankfort Municipal Airport; Kokomo Municipal Airport; Grissom ARB; Kentland Municipal Airport; Waynetown; 2 SW Rossville

34 mph Rensselear I-65/Iroquois River

33 mph Rensselear-Jasper County Airport; Crawfordsville Municipal Airport

32 mph Rochester-Fulton County Airport; Remington I-65/US 24; West Lafayette-Purdue University Airport; 2 NNW Chalmers

30 mph Logansport-Cass County Airport; Peru Municipal Airport; 5 W Delphi; 3 SE Linden

Winds are still gusting to 32 mph this afternoon, but will diminish this evening.

The storm track has been established with very light to no precipitation in our far north to northeast & higher amounts of precipitation as you go southward in the viewing area Saturday.

However, now it is a question of how much we wet-bulb or evaporatively cool.  Some models have nice cooling from 35-40 to 32-34 with snow.  Others, do not have as much dry air & thus colder air, dropping us from 36-41 to 34-37 with rain & rain/snow mix.

It will all depend on how much we warm, when the exact onset of the precipitation is & what the temperature is at the onset of the precipitation & how much we wet-bulb or evaporatively cool.

U.S. NAM 3km model favors all wet snow Saturday:

U.S. HRRR model favors rain/snow mix:

Even with rain/snow, HRRR still has pockets of brief 0.5" or less accumulation where best wet-bulbing occurs.  It also still points to a narrow band of especially heavy snow, but it puts it out more towards Missouri. Nonetheless, it shows a tendency for some narrow bands of +1.5" in central Illinois.

Here is a collection of model output regarding the snowfall below.  Given all of this data, I am sticking with "1" or less of brief snowfall accumulation possible on grassy & elevated surfaces with the best chance of 1" in the south & lesser to little snow in the far north & northeast..........with narrow band of +1.5" possible to our west that will need to be monitored to make sure it does not sneak into our area" & a "rain/snow & snow" overall wording for Saturday with about a 8- to 12-hour duration of any precipitation.

"If narrow band does make it into our area, corridor accumulation on roadways is possible, otherwise roadways will be wet.

I went with highs at 36-41 with wet-bulbing to 32-35.

U.S. HRW-WRF ARW:

U.S. HRW NMMB:

U.S. HRW WRF-NSSL:

U.S. NAM 3km:

U.S. GFS:

Canadian GDPS:

United Kingdom (UKMET):

France ARPEGE (very similar to the UKMET):

Japan JMA (has generally a 1-2" snow for the area with 2" in the southwest & lesser amounts as you go north & northeastward):

Germany ICON:

ECMWF (European) model:

Rainfall is likely late Monday-Monday night to Tuesday morning, followed by dry time Tuesday midday through Wednesday afternoon.

Rain should return Wednesday evening.

High should run 47-52 Monday, 51-56 Tuesday & 57-61 Wednesday.

The epicenter of the higher severe weather risk Thursday-Friday is Texas, Oklahoma, eastern Kansas to Missouri, Arkansas & Louisiana.

We will likely get in on severe risk in our area, but it is this particular zone that shows ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK parameters.

Here, the parameters are MARGINAL to SLIGHT, but stay tuned for more updates & for future SPC Convective outlooks.

Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

Highs in the 60s & 70s are likely & much of the area may not even drop below 60 for Thursday night.

A similar severe weather situation should evolve in the March 23-24 time frame with higher parameters Texas to Missouri, but also severe risk here.

There is also a sign of more of the ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK parameters migrating eastward to Mississippi & Alabama with time.

Here, current analysis shows SLIGHT RISK parameters for our area, but stay tuned for updates & upcoming SPC Convective Outlooks.

Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

Highs in the 60s & 70s are likely & we may have a night where much of the area does not drop below 60.

Windy, much colder weather will follow with even a few rain/snow showers.

Colder pattern should continue March 25 to the end of the month.

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