March 13, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain/snow & snow to warmer weather with t'storms ahead.

Posted: Mar 13, 2020 8:56 PM
Updated: Mar 13, 2020 10:02 PM

Snow & rain/snow are likely Saturday with highs in the 30s to around 40.

HRRR model is trying to shift band of heavier snowfall into the heart of the area with +2" amounts (see below) with burst of heavy snow in that band.

It has some intense frontagenetical forcing with up to 4" in Benton to far western White counties, but very little in the south & far north.

Let's stick with 1" or less right now & keep it consistent with mention of potential of band of heavier +1.5" amounts reaching the area.  Confidence is not particularly high (even 8-12 hours out) due to so many tiny variables at play like temps, soil temps, mid-March insolation, amount of dynamic cooling & wet-bulbing & position of best frontagenetical forcing for big, abundant dendrites in the SGZ.

I'd like to see some consistency with high-resolution model solutions before putting any +1.5" or +2" amount maps up for the heart of our area.

Any snowfall accumulation will not last too long.

Sunday looks a bright, a bit breezy & warmer with 44-49 after 26-30 in the morning.

Some showers are possible Monday evening-night to Tuesday morning.

We should be dry after that until Wednesday evening-night.

Periods of showers & storms are likely Thursday to Friday with breaks in-between.  Some MARGINAL to SLIGHT severe risk is possible late Thursday to Friday of next week.  Higher severe weather risk looks to be western Illinois to Texas.  That is where analogs light up with more ENHANCED to even MODERATE RISK parameters.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible.

It looks warm Thursday-Friday of next week.  We may not even drop below 60 Thursday night of next week.

Shot of much cooler air should follow next Saturday, March 21. 

By Monday, March 23, we are back in the warmth.

Another system may bring some MARGINAL to SLIGHT severe weather risk to the area with higher severe risk southwest & south of our area.

That is where analogs light up the most with more ENHANCED to even MODERATE RISK parameters.

Then the colder weather comes rushing back in by Wednesday, March 25.

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Dry and Cool for Remainder of Weekend.
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