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March 13, 1:30 PM Update

Severe risk, high winds, warmth, then much colder.

Posted: Mar 13, 2019 1:14 PM
Updated: Mar 13, 2019 11:00 PM

WEATHER NUGGETS:

1.  24-HOUR SPRING

It still looks like a 24-hour spring as temperatures warm to 59-67 later today, hang around 59-65 tonight & reach 67-72 tomorrow.  We then drop to 39 tomorrow night then slowly fall Friday & see a high of only 36-41 Saturday (with lows in the 20s.

2.  SEVERE RISK

Wave of rainfall & a few t'storms will pass tonight.  Although MARGINAL RISK is south of us, given strong low-level wind fields coming in, I wouldn't rule out an isolated severe storm.

There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather along & east of a Crawfordsville to Delphi to near Rochester line.  The rest of the area is in MARGINAL RISK for severe weather.

A couple of broken lines of storms are likely with some showing supercell structures.  Very impressive shear & dynamics combined with some of the instability from the sun appearing do support an outbreak of severe weather with wind & tornadoes, especially in our eastern counties & eastward.

However, the cold pocket aloft still looks a bit displaced from where the cold front is located & thus where the lines of storms form.

This is tricky because a few ingredients adjusting could take this from just a MARGINAL situation to a pretty significant one.

If the cold pocket can overlay the area where storms form & where shear & dynamics are maximized, then this could turn into a high-end ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK episode with damaging winds & multiple tornadoes (couple strong & longer track).  Again, our eastern half & eastward would tend to have that sort of risk if this occurs.

The timing of storm formation will need to be watched, as well.  If they form too far to the east then the window for severe here is lessened.  If they form farther west, then we have a much wider window & greater likelihood of severe weather.

Also, despite it looking as if there will be sunshine, it is unclear exactly how much sunshine will occur.  If sun can really be maximized, then severe risk will go up.

So, obviously there are some uncertainties in regards to magnitude of the severe risk & the placement of the main area of risk, but just be aware of the potential of two broken lines of storms in the 12 p.m. to 5 p.m. time frame with potential of some severe weather

3.  NON-T'STORM WINDS

High winds overnight tonight with some gusts 45-60 mph possible at times.

Strong wind gusts tomorrow morning at 40-55 mph at times.

Looks like strong winds ahead of & behind & with the two lines of storms tomorrow.  Gusts 40-55 mph possible outside of storms.  Gusts with the strongest storms will exceed that.  A few t'storm gusts +70 mph cannot be ruled out given the conditions.

Gusts 40-50 mph are still possible at times tomorrow night.

Gusts Friday will run 25-30 mph.

4.  SNOW SHOWERS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER 67-72?

Scattered rain/snow to all snow showers are possible Friday as temperatures drop into the 30s.   Any accumulations would be local & brief given temperatures above freezing & milder ground temperatures after the warm weather Thursday.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Few Clouds
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
Rensselaer
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 34°
Fowler
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 34°
Williamsport
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Crawfordsville
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Frankfort
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 40°
Delphi
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 37°
Monticello
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 37°
Logansport
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 37°
A much cooler day with strong winds and some late-day showers.
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