March 12, 6 PM Quick Update

Showers showers & isolated thunder/lightning...then some wet snow.

Posted: Mar 12, 2020 5:56 PM
Updated: Mar 12, 2020 6:34 PM

Severe weather continues south of our area.

Main supercell has outrun surface low & has been slightly elevated along warm front, so main threat has been large hail with a few damaging wind gusts.

Better tornado risk is shaping up juxtaposed to the surface low & where temperatures are around 70 to the 70s.

Given the sharp surface warm front/rain-cooled boundary in western Kentucky, tornado risk will continue there into the evening.  An isolated strong, longer-track tornado is possible with supercell with the surface low & warm front intersection.

All that said, it is just some periodic scattered showers & isolated t'showers here.  Only risk here would be some lightning & perhaps an isolated pea hailer.  A few more will develop this evening as the cold front approaches & we get some brief heating from a little sun over the next 1-1.5 hours.

Any rainfall in our viewing area should exit by 1 a.m.

Rather quick shot of wet snow is likely Saturday morning to afternoon.  Temperatures should wet-bulb from 36-41 to 32-34 as the snow falls.

1" or less is possible on grassy & elevated surfaces in the area.  The best potential of 1" is in the far southwestern & southern parts of the viewing area.  Nothing may occur on our far northern areas.

There is the potential of a narrow band of +2" of snowfall to occur.  Current data shows that this would most likely occur just southwest & south of our area.  Heavy snowfall rates in this narrow band may bring even slushy road accumulation in otherwise areas that have wet roadways.

We will monitor to make sure that this does not show a shift northward.

There is a developing trend to shift the main rounds of rainfall & t'storms next week to more like Wednesday-Saturday than Monday night-Friday (with only brief showers possible Monday night).

Adjustments may be made on rainfall coverage regarding Tuesday & Wednesday in upcoming outlooks.

The warmest weather & highest severe risk for us is shaping up for the end of next week to next Saturday, March 21.

Multiple rounds of some severe weather are possible in the Plains, Midwest & Mississippi Valley with risk of flooding as two main storm systems with waves of storminess roll through the central U.S. with heavy snow to blizzard conditions in the Rockies.  Unusually cold weather is likely over the western U.S.

Much colder pattern should occur after that with below normal temperatures & even a bit of rain/snow after March 25.

Cooler than normal pattern should settle in right into early April, but rainfall looks below normal during that time, at this point.

Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Danville
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Frankfort
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Some More Frost & Light Freezing Ahead......
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