March 12, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

The new data is in & I have made some tweaks.

Posted: Mar 12, 2020 9:45 PM
Updated: Mar 12, 2020 10:42 PM

Once rainfall ends a period of gusts 35-45 mph are likely overnight from the northwest.

Winds may still gust to 33 mph tomorrow with sun & some increasing clouds.  Highs of 44-49 are likely after 32-36 in the morning (with wind chills 19-26).

Wave of wet snow is likely Saturday.

A period of wet snow is still likely Saturday morning to late afternoon/early evening.  It appears that highs of 36-40 initially will drop to 32-34 due to wet-bulbing with the snow.  This evaporative cooling will occur as the precipitation reaches the ground.

Even now, there is still considerable uncertainties on exact storm track & snowfall amounts.  This is what I do know:

1.  There will likely be a narrow band of heavy snow with +2" accumulations that occurs in Illinois to Indiana, but where exactly that sets up is in question.  This would be a band of intense frontogenetic forcing in the Snow Growth Zone (SGZ).  Good moisture in that zone & ideal temperatures should make for excellent snow crystal & thus great, efficient dendrite or flake development.

2.  If that band shifts into our area & we get 1" per hour rates, totals will go up quickly, but such a band looks to be rather narrow.  Such rates would make for snowy, slushy, slippery roadways, regardless of ground temperature & air temperature.

3.  Right now, "grassy & elevated surface accumulation" still seem like a good wording with "1" of accumulation of less".  I went for a persistence forecast of best potential of receiving 1" in our southern areas.

4.  Remain weather-aware that changes to this forecast are possible.  Snow may decrease here with more of a southerly track or increase with a bit more northerly track or even increase greatly in a narrow zone over the area.

Sunday looks dry & breezy with sunshine & highs in the 40s after 26-30 Sunday morning & 25-30 Monday morning.

Main rains & severe weather risk will occur Thursday & Friday of next week.  Before that, rain & isolated t'storms are possible Monday night-Tuesday morning & late Wednesday-Wednesday night.

Another round of warmth with rain, storms & some severe risk is possible around late on March 22-24.

Much colder weather should follow with highs in the 30s & 40s & lows in the 20s.

Here is your updated 7-day forecast:

West Lafayette
Overcast
51° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 43°
Feels Like: 51°
Kokomo
Overcast
49° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 44°
Rensselaer
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 46°
Fowler
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 46°
Williamsport
Overcast
49° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 45°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
48° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 43°
Feels Like: 45°
Frankfort
Overcast
52° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 52°
Delphi
Overcast
51° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 51°
Monticello
Overcast
48° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 44°
Logansport
Overcast
48° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 44°
Dry and Cool for Remainder of Weekend.
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