Climatologically-speaking, we are on the tail end of the cold for the early part of the year.
Normal last occurrence of mid to upper teens is March 8-15 over the area.
Last 24 usually occurred March 18-26 for the viewing area.
We normally see our last 28 degree-low in the April 8-16 period.
Normal last freeze of the spring varies from April 20-27 over the viewing area from various NWS COOP observation & AWOS/ASOS sites in our viewing area.
Round of rainfall late tonight-early Wednesday will taper to just a few periodic showers by midday-early afternoon. After that, it just looks mostly cloudy & breezy with temperatures warming to 58-64.
Tomorrow night will be windy & warm! Temperatures will rise to 60-65 with southeast to south winds gusting 40-60 mph at times. A wave of rainfall with a few embedded t'storms will pass late Wednesday night to Thursday morning. Given the strong wind fields a low & mid levels, an isolated severe gust cannot be ruled out from a t'storm.
This rain should exit Thursday morning, followed by sunshine, strong winds 40-60 mph from the south with temperatures skyrocketing to 67-72 by 1 p.m.
Two lines of scattered t'storms should develop & pass early to mid afternoon with some severe risk.
I am thinking there could be an upgrade to SPC SLIGHT RISK for Thursday afternoon based on the latest data.
Shear & dynamics are impressive & it would not take much instability (working in conjunction with the dynamics & shear) to bubble up a couple broken lines of showers & t'storms. Winds will be screaming through the lower troposphere, so it wouldn't take much buoyancy to tap into that wind energy & bring it down to the surface.
Cold air aloft is a bit of a missing ingredient. That is displaced northwest of our area, but with the sun out, heating will be accomplished & there should be enough of a difference between the warming surface & lower to mid levels to keep updrafts rising. The cold front & strong wind fields aloft aid in getting the air upward, but think of a ballon filled partially with CO2 & not bursting at the seems with helium. Our buoyancy will not be as good as it could be.
If we could get that colder pocket to overlay the cold front & the area of heating with sunshine, then a much more substantial severe risk could develop.
Right now, thinking SLIGHT upgrade, but we will see what the next round of data holds & what SPC goes with in their next Convective Outlook.
Right now we are at MARGINAL per SPC.
Once the t'storms clear, we should turn mostly sunny to sunny with southwest winds to 55 mph at times with temperatures falling to 55-61.
As the low clouds roll in during the evening & winds shift more westerly, temperatures should fall into the 40s.
It looks like a dry, chilly weekend with Sunday the better of the two weekend days.
A few scattered rain & snow showers may return by next Wednesday-Thursday, but it will not be that warm. Highs will run 40-45 with lows in the 30s.
More consistent warm surge that will bring the warmest air since early October looks to come in after March 20. We may see multiple days in the 70s, perhaps 75-80 degrees in the March 23-29 period.
It still looks like t'storms around March 28-29 with strong storm system that may bring severe weather over the Plains & South. New data suggests it could get in here, but there is no strong signal to talk it up & it is a long way out.
Much colder weather should dive in behind it, but it should last long. Early April looks warm, followed by below to well below normal temperatures in mid April before we see summer in late April with mid 80s.
Rainfall looks normal for the month with normal, typical incidence of severe weather risk (usually two events each April on average here). An event is a total of 6 or more reports of severe weather from at least 3 or more counties in our area or a very noteworthy singular event like a significant downburst or a tornado.