March 11, 10 AM Weather Update: Warmest Day Since October 30 This Week, But with a Catch

24-hour spring is ahead, but with a downside.

Posted: Mar 11, 2019 9:06 AM
Updated: Mar 11, 2019 10:19 AM

Today & tomorrow look just chilly & dry with lows in the 20s & highs in the near 40 to the 40s range.

Warm front should push through Wednesday with some scattered showers & lots of clouds & southeast winds 15-25 mph turning more south-southeasterly & increasing to 20-30 mph late.

Much of the day should be in the 40s to 50s.  We should not warm nicely until evening (once warm front pushes through). 

After that, it looks downright balmy & April-like Wednesday night with temperatures 58-64 all night with strong south wind at 25-40 mph as a wave of rain & some t'storms pass.  Isolated severe risk will be just to our southwest.  We will monitor to make sure the risk does not spread northeastward into our area.

Nice dry slot of mostly sunny skies are expected Thursday.  With all of the sunshine & nice downsloping of wind off of the Ozark Plateau to our southwest in Missouri & dry Plains & Ozark air, 66-71 is likely (69 Greater Lafayette).

However, the catch is a damaging wind even potential.  So, it will be the warmest day since October 30, but the wind will make it difficult to walk outside.

Surface low may drop to a very impressive 978 mb over southwestern Iowa before occluding & then quickly rising to 984 mb by afternoon.

The result of the very deep surface low will be very intense pressure gradient over area.  With full sunshine, full mixing of the strong winds aloft down to the surface will result.

At this point, it looks like 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. damaging high wind event Thursday.

Southwest winds may become sustained at 25-40 mph with gusts 50-65 mph area-wide.  This set-up & mixing bears similarity to the significant high wind event of early April 1988 in the viewing area with some gusts to 70 mph.

High Wind Watch may be issued by mid-week for the entire viewing area. Multiple states from Nebraska & South Dakota to Indiana may end up with High Wind Watches (Blizzard Watch possible South Dakota, North Dakota & Nebraska).

Sustained winds around noon.............& temperatures:

Winds should diminish some Thursday evening as mixing ceases, but pressure gradient will keep some gusts of 30-45 mph going through the night & into Friday.

Cold front should pass Thursday evening, causing temperatures to drop to the 30s to around 40.

Thinking that a narrow, broken band of gusty showers may form on the cold front & pass in that evening.  Once the front passes, we should drop rapidly from 60s to 40s as deck of low clouds wraps in.

With strong winds (west-northwest to northwest 20-45 mph), Friday should be cloudy with a few scattered snow & rain showers with temperatures in the 30s to around 40.  Wind chills will be in the 20s to 30.

Saturday looks cold with a northwest wind at 10-20 mph, partly cloudy skies & highs only in the 30s with lows in the 20s.

Sunday may be mostly sunny to sunny with 40s, but the winds will be strong again at 20-40 mph from the west-southwest.

We should turn cloudy Monday with highs in the 40s to 50. 

Some scattered showers (possibly mixed with or changing to snow at times) are possible at times Tuesday-Thursday of next week with cold upper low.  Skies looks mostly cloudy to cloudy with highs in the 40s & lows in the 30s.

After some cold, frosty weather around & shortly after the first day of spring with lows of 20-25, highs should run in the 40s & 50s.

Some rain is possible around March 23 after the freezing.

Windy, warm weather will develop by March 23-24 with southerly winds 20-40 mph.

Highs by March 26 have the potential to reach 75-80 after a few days of 60s & 70s around.

Showers/storms are possible around March 27 with highs 75-80 & morning lows of only around 60-65!

Severe weather risk should ramp up in the Plains & southern U.S.  Here, it just looks like leftovers or Marginal Risk at best.  We will monitor.  Much could change in regards to timing & placement of severe & exact timing of warmth.

Brief, sharp cool-down with temperatures as much as 20 degrees below normal is possible at the very end of March for a couple of days. 

I still think we could warm up very nicely in early April before severe weather events is followed by big change mid-April.  Our last freezes & unusually chilly weather is possible mid-month (with even a few flakes).  Temperatures may be up to 20s degrees below normal.

Summer weather should unfold in late April with 80s as we flip the switch again.  Given such warmth & the active storm track, severe risk will go up significantly.

Article Comments

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Widespread rainfall by Sunday.
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