Some fog, overcast skies & a few showers this morning will give way to mostly cloudy skies with a few more isolated showers this afternoon to early tonight. Some fog & drizzle will also develop this evening-early tonight.
Highs should run near 50 to the mid 50s with a southwest breeze.
Areas of fog are likely overnight with lows of 40-45.
Thursday looks breezy to windy with south-southwest gusts 25-33 mph.
A passing isolated shower or two is possible midday to afternoon, followed by a line of showers & a few t'storms late evening to early overnight.
Although an isolated severe t'storms with wind &/or hail cannot 100% be ruled out, the main corridor of severe weather risk is southwest & south of our area.
Clusters of splitting supercells will occur from southeastern Missouri, through southern Illinois, far southern Indiana & southward through Kentucky, Tennessee & Arkansas.
Large hail, wind & isolated tornadoes, along with flash flooding, will occur in that zone.
SPC has SLIGHT RISK of severe in that zone south of our area with potential of a pocket of ENHANCED RISK in future outlooks.
Saturday PM to Sunday AM, system will pass with rain/snow to possible snow before ending.
Looks like highs 39-44 Saturday, lows 31-34 Saturday night & highs 40-45 Sunday.
GEFS Ensemble projected snowfall accumulations......
Light gray is 0.5", dark gray 1", light blue 2", darker blues are +4" & purples +6":
It being Wednesday morning & a lack of good analog guidance, I thought I would just show you raw model data.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS DATA DISPLAYED BELOW IS NOT A FORECAST. This shows raw model trends, as I am unable to make a forecast of much confidence regarding the exact details of the rain/snow Saturday. Temperatures, storm track, amount of dry air & ground temperature along with any snowfall rates will determine accumulation, if any.
U.S. NAM 12km projected snowfall (Kuchera Method) by Sunday AM:
European model (10:1 ratio):
U.S. GFS model (10:1 ratio)........(the Japanese model seems to be in close line with the GFS):
Canadian model (10:1 ratio):
United Kingdom model (10:1 ratio):
U.S. CFS model snow depth Sunday morning:
U.S. SREF model with probability of +1" of snowfall:
French model is very similar to the Canadian model in placement of the 540 line (snow line) & where axis of heavier precipitation & snowfall occurs:
Multiple waves of rainfall (with breaks in-between) are likely Monday night to Thursday of next week along & north of a warm front.
As the main upper level system pivots through Thursday, severe risk will arrive in the area. The magnitude is unclear & just exactly where the higher risk will exist in our overall region, but be weather-aware of the risk with all hazards on the table.
Looks like we will be in the 40s to 50 Monday, then 52-64 Tuesday, 50s & 60s Wednesday & eventually 60s to 70s Thursday.
Locally-heavy rainfall totals of 1.5-3" are possible next week, leading to some flash & then some minor to moderate creek & river flooding.
Note the big temperature anomalies with the strong storm system with warm ahead of it & the much colder air behind it.
A briefly colder regime will give way to a burst of warm with rain & storms possible (with potential severe weather risk) in the March 22-24 time frame.
This is a wet pattern right into late March!
Note the noon temperatures projected on March 22 with 70s working northeastward:
Colder pattern will settle in after that with the domination of below normal temperatures right into early April. I cannot even rule out a bit of rain/snow after March 25.
At this point, rainfall looks above normal for the spring & early summer. There is a noted analog signal of good, solid, week-long break from the rain with heat, which is good planting of the corn & soybean crop. This signal is noted in May amidst the overall wetter-than-normal spring. This is a bit of a deviation from last spring when it was consistently wet nearly the entire spring season with no widespread drying until June.
In July, axis of heavier rainfall will shift northward with a trend toward below normal rainfall (unless we see multiple tropical systems impact the area) latter July to September overall.
July 2020 rainfall anomalies (note the expansion of the yellow or below normal rainfall north & northeastward):
It still looks like a warmer than normal summer, especially the second half of summer. I think the best chance of some below normal temperatures for summer is in California & parts of the Desert Southwest.
The greatest temperature anomalies are actually trending toward August with potential drought conditions developing (again, unless we can get a couple tropical systems in).
- March 11, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 11, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update
- March 20, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 12, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 13, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 17, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 2, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 14, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 11, 11 PM Update
- March 27, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update