SEVERE WX : Severe Thunderstorm Warning View Alerts

March 11, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

There is a spring side & winter side to this forecast.

Posted: Mar 11, 2020 6:25 PM
Updated: Mar 11, 2020 10:46 PM

Isolated showers, drizzle & developing fog are over the area as of 9:15 p.m.  Temperatures are 39-46, after highs struggled their way up to 43-50 today after initial forecast of 50-55 this morning.  Normal high for March 11 is 47-51 over the area, however.

Forcing for isolated showers & drizzle should exit tonight, but patchy to areas of fog will remain.  Lows of 38-43 should rise to 42-47 late with light south wind commencing.

Patchy fog should burn off in the morning, followed by mostly cloudy skies & a few scattered showers developing. 

This should increase to showers & t'storms later in the day with south winds up to 30 mph & highs 62-65.

Following all of these showers & storms, a line of showers & t'showers should occur with the cold front tomorrow night, followed by a sharp wind shift to the west-northwest & a rapid temperature drop to the 30s.  Wind chills could drop to 21-27 by early Friday morning.

Although MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is labled by SPC forecasters south of our area, I cannot 100% rule out a strong to severe wind &/or hail producer or two in the viewing area.  SPC may end up just pushing the MARGINAL RISK back north again.  They may also expand SLIGHT RISK north some.

If current trends hold, a pocket of ENHANCED RISK may be painted in future SPC convective outlooks within the SLIGHT RISK zone.

I went for a generic 60% coverage of rainfall marker for tomorrow, but much of it will be in the PM & to tomorrow night.

Clusters of splitting supercells will occur south of our area with large hail, wind & tornado risk, along with potential of local flash flood-producing rainfall.

Here it is a conglomerate of showers & storms with a few discrete cells (leading to mentioning of risk of isolated strong to severe cell or two), then that line of showers & t'showers with the cold front.

Friday looks mostly sunny & windy with gusts to 35 mph & highs 44-48.  However, clouds will increase later in the day.

Lows of 29-33 are likely Friday night as skies become cloudy.

Saturday's highs should reach the 30s with east to northeast wind.  Some wet snow should overspread the area, ending by Sunday evening or early night-time.

Accumulation on grassy & elevated surfaces is possible.

It is unclear whether the entire area will get some snow or just the south half of south quarter.  There are still uncertainties.

Given the mid-March sun angle & recent milder weather, any snow will have some trouble sticking, but should come down hard enough for some very minor to minor accumulation where it falls.

Sunday looks partly cloudy with highs of 41-45 with 28-32 Sunday night.

Monday looks mostly cloudy with some showers possible late & highs 46-50.

Periods of rainfall & a few storms are likely Tuesday-Thursday next week with warming temperatures.

A total of 1.5-3" is possible Monday-Thursday.

Severe weather risk may arrive Thursday.

We will monitor for tweaks to this forecast.

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