This March should come in like a lamb. It will also be a better start to March compared to the last two years. March 2019 was the coldest start since 1960 (with snow on the ground) & March 2020 was also unusually cold with snow on the ground.
All the rain has shifted south of the area for the week.
This is good as rivers & creeks will be cresting today through early Wednesday in our area.
This is parts of widespread river flooding from central Indiana southward.
Massive flooding is occurring from northeastern Texas to far southern Pennsylvania where up to 9" of rain had fallen in the past two days atop wet ground.
Scattered discontinuous severe weather has also been occurring from southern Kentucky to Tennessee to Texas with wind damage & large hail reported. Wouldn't surprise me if some of the wind damage ends up begin confirmed as EF0-EF1 tornado damage based on radar data.
Wabash should crest 4-6' above flood stage from Prophetstown State Park to Covington. Crests should begin Monday afternoon & work down-river to Covington by early Wednesday.
Other creeks are in flood like the Wildcat, Little Pine & Sugar Creeks. These should crest this morning to today & then begin to fall.
No major flooding is expected, but it will still be enough flooding for impacts from the rain & melted snow.
At Lafayette with 16' to possibly near 17' projected flood crest:
16' Lowland flooding is in progress. Flood waters near SR 225 between Old SR 25 and Battleground. Warren CR 350 N near Black Rock Preserve and Tippecanoe CR 950 W in the Wabash Bottoms, Janssen Tract area may be impassable. Fort Ouiatenon grounds begin to flood. Flooding at the Grandville Public Access site.
If it gets to 17' Lowland flooding in progress. Flood waters close SR 225 just south of the Wabash River near Battleground. Walking and bike trails in Tapawingo Park area are flooded. Warren CR 350 N in the Black Rock Preserve area flooded. Flood waters near Tippecanoe CR 950 W south of CR 75 S.
At Covington with projected 20-20.5' crest:
20.5' Williamsport Road may begin to flood in Fountain County.
20' A few county roads begin to flood. Higher bottomlands begin to flood. The first cottage upstream from U.S. 136 bridge may become isolated by high water.
Rivers & creeks are high in the north from snow melt, but no flooding is expected.
We do not expect any substantial rainfall here until early to mid then late next week. A few showers Tuesday should give way to a few more showers Wednesday, then rounds of widespread showers & storms with isolated severe risk possible with highs 60s to as high as 71.
More rounds of showers & storms are possible March 15-17 after March 9-11. 15-17 shows higher severe risk (more like SLIGHT parameters) with highs 70 to the 70s.
Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible with some flash flooding risk.
This all after 37-46 today, 20-26 tonight with heavy frost & some freezing fogg, 42-51 tomorrow, 51-60 Wednesday & 40s to lower 50s Thursday-Friday. Each day will have ample sunshine with some clouds.
Saturday should see 50-55, then 55-60 Sunday & 60-65 next Monday. 62-67 is expected next Tuesday.