SEVERE WX : Freeze Warning View Alerts

March 1, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data here.....detailed March to early April outlook is now up.

Posted: Mar 1, 2021 11:51 AM
Updated: Mar 1, 2021 1:36 PM

Temperatures are 33-43 over the viewing area north to southwest as of 12 p.m. with a brisk northwest wind blowing.  This after lows of 27-32 this morning. 

Skies are partly to mostly cloudy in the north & northeast, but sunny to mostly sunny elsewhere.

For the rest of the day, generally partly cloudy skies are expected with highs 36-46 over the area.  Areas that area mostly sunny to sunny now should see some increasing clouds. It will continue to be breezy.

Tonight, with a clear sky with light to calm winds, heavy frost & potential of some patchy freezing fog.  Lows of 17-25 are expected (coldest north).

A hangover of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Episode still looks to be brutal cold for March to the Northeast U.S.  Wind Chill Watches & Warnings are up.  This will avoid our area, but Pennsylvania, parts of Maryland & even parts of Ohio will see cold, cold weather.

Core of it will be in New York to Connecticut & northeastward. 

Thankfully, all the rain stays south of our area all of this week to next weekend.  Highs Tuesday-Sunday will run in the 40s & 50s with lows in the 20s & 30s

High, flooding rivers & creeks will crest now to early Wednesday.

Wildcat just crested about 0.5' above flood stage at Lafayette.  Other creeks just crested or will crest soon.

Wabash at Lafayette should crest near 16' by tonight.

According to NWS hydrologists:

At 16': Lowland flooding is in progress. Flood waters near SR 225 between Old SR 25 and Battleground. Warren CR 350 N near Black Rock Preserve and Tippecanoe CR 950 W in the Wabash Bottoms, Janssen Tract area may be impassable. Fort Ouiatenon grounds begin to flood. Flooding at the Grandville Public Access site.

Wabash at Covington should crest near 19' late Tuesday night-early Wednesday.

According to NWS hydrologists:

At that level, a few county roads begin to flood. Higher bottomlands begin to flood. The first cottage upstream from U.S. 136 bridge may become isolated by high water.  Five Crossings, a local county river park at old U.S. Highway 136 bridge site, begins to flood.

60s arrive early next week.

Much more active weather is ahead Tuesday-Friday of next week with windy, humid weather & lots of warmth that will really progress daffodils, crocuses & tulips, as well as elms, soft maple species & even Star Magnolias to Forsynthias into budding.

Lawns will really begin to turn a deep green.

Multiple waves of showers & some storms are likely late Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the 60s to as high as 73.

Main time period for a squall line with some severe risk would be between early Friday morning & Friday afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday morning looks exceptionally warm with temperature not even dropping below 60 potentially.

Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK of severe here & SLIGHT RISK just south of our area (potentially to I-74).  We will monitor.

Looks like low-CAPE, high-shear environment for cool-season narrow QLCS squall line with LEWPs, dog legs, nodes & kidney beans in the line.

1-2.5" of rainfall is possible.

Strong gradient winds may occur just ahead of the squall line & then behind it with gusts to 45 mph possible.

Big, negatively-tilted storm system looks to bring a couple to a few rounds of rain & storms in the March 14-16 period.

Some severe weather is possible around March 16 with 60s to 70s possible.  Parameters support SLIGHT RISK here to possibly ENHANCED RISK southwest of our area.

We will monitor.

These temperatures will further push our spring flowers & vegetation along.  Daffodils will likely begin to bloom & Saucer Magnolias begin to open. 

CIPS analog shows the above-normal temperature anomalies for this period here & over southern Plains to Midwest & below normal temperature anomalies West.

Note the heavy rainfall signal here in the analog:

CIPS analog probability of 10 or more reports of severe weather within 110 km of a grid point shows up from Iowa to the Red River to Missouri & Arkansas.

This risk then begins to move eastward with time.

After this system, I do think that we will get a shot of colder air in here with temperatures going briefly below normal.  Freezing will occur & I also think we may have a day with highs only 34-40 with a strong northwest wind with low stratus.

There will also be a window for a big (possibly) Nor'Easter) snowstorm on the East Coast from Virginia/D.C. to New England.

So, just know that after some nice, big warmth with spring-like temperatures & severe weather risk, March 17-20 could be rather chilly around here.

The colder PDO, MJO & EPO parameters take hold for a brief time here.  However, the cold effect may linger longer in the Northeast U.S.

All that said, we look to go back to the warmth & storminess overall March 22-30.

Multiple storm systems with potential of some locally-heavy rainfall & some 70s surges are expected.  My eyes are one around March 23-24 for the greatest severe weather risk of the 22-30 period here.  Parameters suggest SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK as far north as our area to eastern Oklahoma & Arkansas to northeastern Texas.

Following this, a cool shot should arrive with frost & light freezing, then early April ramping up with warmth to 80 & severe weather risk.

Early April is trending very warm, humid & stormy with best severe weather risk since 2011.

There is a strong analog signal for a few tornadoes as far north as our viewing area.

Vegetation should progress rapidly earlier than the past few years.  Tuliptrees, Sugar Maples should quickly green, Eastern Redbuds blossom & Flowering Dogwoods begin to blossom.

Vegetation progression timing is not as early as 2012 & 2007, but earlier than 2011.  So, it should equal 2010 & 2005 when trees progressed by about 1-2 weeks early.  2012 was a full month early!

Note the above normal rainfall in the Midwest & parts of the Great Lakes.  The Northern Plains will likely see some late-season snowstorms/blizzards.

The hot, dry Southeast ridge should keep the stormy pattern locked in as it blocks southward progression of cold fronts while the surface high pumps deep tropical moisture northward.

Meanwhile, the expanding drought in the Southwest will push the dryline near Kansas City to Tulsa, rather than have it farther west, result in higher severe risk shifting eastward (this reminds me a lot of 2006 & 2011).

Summer heat will arrive early in the Deep South to Florida with record heat possible.

Frost & freezing seems likely after this stretch in mid-April before it resumes in late April & into early May with severe weather risk & flooding risk with above normal temperatures.

The frost & freezing may thin out apple & cherry to peach blossoms, but not big freeze effect are expected currently.

Nonetheless, some chilly days are expected with temperatures below to well below normal.

It does not look like a situation last year where vegetation was wiped out or burned TWICE in April to early May (& nearly the ENTIRE local fruit crop from apples to raspberries & blueberries was lost). It was the worst where vegetation was advanced the farthest over the southwestern half of the area. 

Areas farther northeastward around Rochester & then out of our viewing area around Kendallville had a great apple & blueberry crop.

Hot, dry summer with first 100 since 2012 is still expected.

HOWEVER, there will be a very pronounced "Ring of Fire" pattern that will be very active.  It could bring actually flooding rains & lots of severe weather from Minnesota to Wisconsin to Michigan, then Ohio.

IF WE PLAY OUR CARDS RIGHT, we will see just enough of these MCSs sneak in to help mitigate the very hot, dry pattern.

EVEN BETTER, if we can get these in here during critical periods for crops, we will fare much better in an overall hot, droughty pattern.

There is also hope in the tropics.  They are expected to be active & if we can get them going early get a couple tropical systems to sustain us here, we will be in much better shape.

So, there is hope, but the overall pattern still supports the intense heat & drier regime.

Eyes will be on that "Ring of Fire" pattern & the tropics as the hot, hot upper ridge expands from Texas & Arkansas to Missouri, then Illinois & Indiana & merges with South ridge.

Looks like a very warm, dry Fall 2021 (unless we see more tropical development get in here).

However, analog still supports colder than normal November with upper trough in East & upper ridge in the West dominant.

Lafayette
Cloudy
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Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 39°
Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Lafayette
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Feels Like: 39°
Danville
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Frankfort
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Freezing to 80s & Storms...
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