I wanted to spend as much time with my family as possible this week, so I took a break from weather before the spring & summer severe season really ramp up. It is good to be back on the blog as we track a topsy-turvey regime for a bit.
NOW TO SATURDAY NIGHT:
What a nice stretch it has been! This late-March weather has been the best since early October!
With dry soils, farmers have even been getting early fieldwork done & I got the early cool-season crops of the garden out! It has been September since we have had so many mostly sunny to sunny days in a row!
Lows lastnight were only in the 50s after the second warmest day of 2019 for the area (overall) yesterday.
Now, things tend to go downhill for a bit.
A large round of rainfall is ahead (after two waves of rainfall already) made up of three main waves (with the potential of a couple isolated rumbles of thunder in any wave of rainfall).
This is a quite a bit of rainfall, which will lead to ponding & rises in creeks & streams. The Wabash will be on the rise again. This, after such a nice dry stretch.
Even in-between the individual waves of rain, showers & drizzle & fog will occur. Today-Saturday night just doesn't look nice weather-wise, though we should get through this afternoon dry (but gray). :(
This storm will bring Denver another snowstorm with heavy snowfall & strong winds over flood-ravaged Nebraska. Meanwhile, severe weather is possible southern Iowa to northern Texas with the bulls-eye of the severe risk in Oklahoma & Missouri.
The first of the two waves of rain (embedded in the larger overall round) should really commence as a gradual uptick in showers this evening & become more widespread overnight-Saturday morning.
Yes..........the potential is there for the rain to end as a period of snow later Saturday afternoon-Saturday evening as temperatures fall from the 40s in the morning to the lower to mid 30s by later in the day (with a strong north wind to 35 mph to boot!).
It is not a certainty, but it is not out of the question that grassy & elevated accumulation occurs in parts of the viewing area.
I think a band of pretty heavy snowfall should develop over part of Ohio to far eastern Indiana. If that shifts westward, then our accumulations could go up even more.
We will monitor closely!
As temperatures fall into the 20s Saturday night-Sunday morning, a few slick spots on roadways are possible as moisture freezes or any slush that can accumulate freezes.
Total rainfall (& potentially melted snowfall) now to Saturday night looks to run 1-2" (atop what we have already received). A few isolated +2" amounts cannot be ruled out.
After mild to warm weather today-tonight, watch the cold quickly roll in tomorrow & into tomorrow night!
Sunday may turn sunny, but it will be breezy & chilly with highs 37-41 after morning lows near 24.
Sunday night looks mostly clear & cold with lows 22-26. The temperatures will not get as cold as it could get due to a southeast wind commencing late.
The quick cold snap ends Monday with highs near 50 to the mid 50s with lots of sunshine & not much wind! :)
The weather looks good with 50s & 60s next week, though. Some places may get to 70 by the end of next week again, though it does look showery & windy. A few t'storms are possible.
Severe weather risk is focused from Texas & Oklahoma to Arkansas & Louisiana.
NEXT WEEKEND TO APRIL 14:
To me, this just looks WARM.
We have multiple opportunities with 70s to even a few lower 80s & we will have a couple/few overnights where the low temperature will not even drop below the 60s.
Strong southerly winds will dominate with only 3 days in the April 4-14 period NOT seeing southerly winds dominate.
Dew points will rise, too. There are a few instances of dew points getting to the 60s.
A VERY RAPID GREEN-UP of the trees & lawns will occur.
Severe weather risk will begin to expand northeastward in each episode, starting out from Texas to Kansas to Arkansas to Louisiana.
Then, we see risk begin to get into our area & even as far north as southern Minnesota, Iowa & southwestern Wisconsin with time. At this point, the highest potential is setting up around April 14 as a strong cold front & surface low may pass, ushering in a pattern change.
Overall, I am thinking that this period will be a bit wetter than normal with 1.50-2.50" of rainfall possible for the area April 4-14.
Brief cold snap, then the warm seen here in the CFSV2 model temperature anomaly forecasts:
I still think a cold snap will occur in this period with freezing temperatures possible here.
It would not surprise me one bit if we see an usually-late Northeast snowstorm as a dynamic, but moisture-starved clipper darts through our area & then reforms on the East Coast.
Heavy, wet snow may fall from West Virginia to New England with some snow to perhaps the outer burbs of the bigger cities (D.C. to Boston).
Precipitation looks below normal here.............good news for farmers.
The mid-month cold wave sort of straddles all of the warmth, so it all trends above normal mid to late month when you combine all of the numbers.
The temperatures prior & following the chill mid-month even the cold all out, so there is little trace of the cold wave when you average all of the numbers up (but I do think freezing temperatures will be there for some nights.)
This period continues to look WARM with a tendency for above normal temperatures. It doesn't look overly wet either until the very end of the month. So, farmers may have a brief window for planting in late April.
- March 29, 12 PM: What a Nice Stretch We Have Had! The Outlook Now-April 30
- March 13, 6:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Here is the Outlook Now to Late April
- December 29, 3 AM Weather Forecast Outlook
- March 18, 11 PM: Last Occurrences of Frost & Freezing & the Outlook to Late April
- March 3, 1 PM Weather Update: The Snow Outlook
- Weekend Outlook
- January 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Outlook
- 2:30 PM Weather Update: Rainfall Outlook & Overall Forecast