Fog deck in our far southwestern counties has long eroded away with lows early this morning at 40-48.
Temperatures are now running 51-61 over the area as of 11:30 a.m.
Now, clouds are on the increase & some showers & storms are in Illinois. They are moving eastward rapidly.
This warm front & its position means highs varying from 54 to 67 today northwest to south & with east to northeast winds north & southeast to south winds in the south. In the far north (northern Newton & northwestern Jasper counties), a lake breeze front may drop areas like Morocco to Demotte to 43-46!
SPC has the MARGINAL RISK of severe weather along & south of a Pine Village to Romney to near Frankfort line & southward for isolated large hailer.
Projected movement now to 5 p.m. (thoughts are that a few more storms will occur farther southward to as far south as southern Illinois & Indiana):
After any rainfall departs this evening, a period of some rainfall & isolated rumble of thunder is possible Friday morning.
Best rainfall coverage currently looks to be south of Indiana 18.
With the warm front dropping south, with a brisk northeast wind moving in, our temperatures by tomorrow morning will drop to 39-50 northwest to south. That will make for a cold rainfall.
Risk of some severe weather will continue over southern Illinois to southern Indiana & Kentucky to Friday midday-early afternoon.
Here, with east-northeast to southeast wind, our highs Friday afternoon should run 54-65 (northwest to south) as warm front begins to migrate back northward.
A few breaks in the clouds are possible.
More severe weather will develop in Missouri & southern Illinois Friday evening-night & some showers & storms will move in from the west into our area.
Showers & some t'storms are likely Friday night right into Saturday morning. A couple isolated severe t'storms are possible. The main threat would be hail, as storms will be a bit elevated (rooted in the unstable air atop a more stable surface).
The temperature difference with the warm front will be rather extreme Saturday morning around 7 a.m. Lafayette & southward may run 63-67, while the far north/northwest may only be at 43-45. It could be a situation where Monticello is 48 & Lafayette is 64 & Logansport is 47 & Russiaville is 62.
A break in the rainfall may develop with time Saturday late morning to midday as warm front shoots northward.
Check out the warm front moving northward morning to midday.
By midday on Saturday, it may be 48 at Rochester & Winamac & 68-71 farther south.
Highs Saturday should peak at 68-73 over the area with strong south-southwest winds.
Line of severe storms will likely develop along the Mississippi River in the mid to late afternoon & move eastward.
What will determine whether we have more in the way of SLIGHT than MARGINAL RISK Saturday evening to early night will be determined by how many showers & t'storms form ahead o the line. If none form, then there is a better potential of severe here, if quite a few form, severe risk would be less.
Strong northwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph are possible Saturday night to part of Sunday with mostly cloudy skies & potential of a couple sprinkles or light showers early Sunday morning.
Highs Sunday should run in the 40s to around 50 with mostly cloudy skies for much of the area.
0.75-1.75" of rainfall is likely for the area now to Saturday. A few isolated amounts of +2" are possible.
Winds should decrease later Sunday.
A few rain/snow showers are possible around March 31, then warm surge with some severe risk is possible in the first few days of April. However, overall precipitation in the early half of April averages below normal.
Much colder weather with freezing at night should follow.
Stormier pattern with above normal rainfall & temperatures is likely for the latter half of April.