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Local Weather History: "High Risk" Days In Our Viewing Prior to 1990

The Storm Prediction Center issues a "High Risk" in the their Convective Outlook for the worst of severe weather outbreaks. Here is a look at likely "High Risk" days that covered all or part of our viewing before these outlooks came to fruition & in years that the outlook archives have been lost. Good records only exist 1990 & onward for SPC outlooks.

Posted: Sep 6, 2019 2:21 PM
Updated: Apr 9, 2020 9:43 PM

"High Risk" is issued for the worst severe weather outbreaks in terms of intensity, extent & density of severe weather.

Per 1990-2019 data, we average around 3 "High Risk" days per decade in our viewing area.

Data regarding "High Risk" issuance goes back to 1984.  Prior to 1984, outbreaks affecting the viewing area & nearby region were examined & a determination made on whether it would make the modern-day forecast threshold of High Risk.

These are only High Risk days for part or all of the viewing area.

Prior to 1950, I had to glean through all US Weather Bureau reports, newspaper, county history, historical society & museum images & diaries to be able to paste together all severe weather reports. 

This has taken a long, long time & a few years to complete, especially for the reports & determination of High Risk threshold prior to 1900.

I only went back to 1850, but I can tell you that 4 outbreaks show some evidence of potential High Risk threshold.  Those being one in May 1834, May 1835, May 1836 & March 1849.

For example, here is the November 17, 2013 outlook:

Here is what transpired with 576 reports of severe weather, including 74 tornado reports, 62 large hail reports & 440 damaging wind reports:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Likely HIGH RISK days per decade:

1980-89:  3

1970-79:  3

1960-69:  6

1950-59:  2

1940-49:  2

1930-39:  0

1920-29:  2

1910-19:  5

1900-09:  1

1890-99:  2

1880-89:  4

1870-79:  1

1860-69:  4

1850-59:  2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

May 2, 1983

April 3, 1982

June 7, 1980

March 12, 1976

June 20, 1974

April 3, 1974

May 15, 1968

April 21, 1967

April 11, 1965

April 29, 1963

April 30, 1962

March 6, 1961

April 3, 1956

April 9, 1953

March 19, 1948

March 16, 1942

April 18, 1922

March 29, 1920

May 27, 1917

March 21, 1916

March 23, 1913

April 22, 1912

November 11, 1911

June 25, 1902

May 25, 1896

March 24, 1893

May 12, 1886

May 18, 1883

March 4, 1880

June 14, 1880

June 30, 1877

October 21, 1866

March 20, 1866

June 3, 1860

May 21, 1860

May 13, 1858

April 30-May 1, 1852

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