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Local Weather History: Analogging Further for 2019-20 Winter

Analogging is essential to making a seasonal forecast....Let's dig into 2019-20 winter mysteries with more details.

Posted: Dec 30, 2019 11:31 PM
Updated: Dec 31, 2019 1:33 AM

2013-14 & 2018-19 winters are all similar to this one, sea surface temperature-wise.

However, lets analog further.

Let's take years with near/record cold in November to even early December with early snows, then near/record warmth in late December.

With those parameters, let's now take those years & see which ones resemble our current surface temperature anomaly pattern around the world & see that they are near neutral ENSO-wise (El Nino, La Nina).

Since 1880, I found three November-Decembers that met this criteria:

1893-94............1967-68............1984-85

Others have some resemblance are 1959-60 & 2008-09.

1893-94 was actually the best match (mind you there was a lot less CO2 back then & there is a lot more real estate of ocean that is warmer now)..........

This is how January-February fared 1893-94.

Much of the Lower 48 saw below normal temperatures, expect for influence of a Southeast upper ridge.  This brought temperatures above modern-day normal across Florida, southeastern Alabama to southern Georgia.

Our mean January-February temperatures ran around 2.5-3 degrees below normal.

1967-68; 1984-85 January-February periods all show mean temperatures of 3-4 degrees below normal.

Let's combine them all...........Jan-Feb. 1894, 1967, 1985, 2014 & 2019 for the fun of it.

So, superficially, there is a trend toward mean temperatures 3.5-4 below normal in years with a very cold, snowy November, then milder December with near/record warm temperatures after December 20 to December 31 & a near/neutral ENSO regime with anomalous warm blobs in the North Pacific off the East Coast to Greenland, southeast of Australia & northwest of Australia to India (+1.5C anomalies as compared to modern normals).  Low solar was also figured into these years' similarities.

The cold tends to be widespread over much of the Lower 48.

There is a tendency for above normal precipitation in our area of 0.50-1.49" above normal for the two months.

West Lafayette Minimum Temperature January-February:

1894:  -18

1968:  -19

1985:  -24

2014:  -21

2019:  -19

Snowfall October-April:

1893-94:  33.6"

1967-68:  18.1"

1984-85:  17.0"

2013-14:  67.1"

2018-19:  25.7"

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