Latest Summer 2019 Outlook

Overall mean temperatures & rainfall anomalies are here for Summer 2019.

Posted: Apr 18, 2019 9:21 PM
Updated: Apr 18, 2019 9:43 PM

The latest analysis shows a tendency for near normal temperatures here overall for the summer.  Above normal temperatures will exist east & well west of us.

A large area of below normal temperatures will exist over the Plains, eastern Rockies & western Corn Belt. 

Soil moisture will be a big factor in holding temperatures down over a large expanse of the U.S.

The traditional El Nino will also make for a robust monsoon season, which will pump excessive moisture into the Southwest U.S. & then into the Plains.

I expect an above normal number of days with dew points in the 70s to 80 degrees.

It may not be a scorching summer, but the humidity will make it feel extra rough, like last summer.  This will teeter overnight lows above normal, which help to keep the mean temperature near normal.

Blues show below normal mean temperatures, yellow to orange & red with above normal temperatures to varying degrees.  White is near normal.

Rainfall looks above normal over all of the Plains, the Southwest, Lower & Mid-Mississippi Valley & part of Midwest, including our area. 

Below normal rainfall will exist farther east & southeast of our area.

A late planting season is expected over the Plains & Midwest with delays here, as well.  However, the delays will not be as bad as those in the Plains & western Corn Belt, it appears. 

Blues & greenish color shows the above normal rainfall relative to normal.  Yellows & oranges to reds show the rainfall means below relative to normals for that climate division.

It is not necessarily the best pattern for lots of derechos & big severe outbreaks here, but more messy MCS & lots of clusters of rain & storms that produce heavy rainfall, lots of lightning & still severe weather.  However, we lack a big Plains drought & major heat wave to really get lots & lots of big severe weather outbreaks here (like you would normally have in a La Nina pattern) especially ridge riding derechos.

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