LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AHEAD

Two main rounds of showers/storms are ahead. The second looks much more potent with severe weather risk.

Posted: Jul 19, 2018 1:10 PM
Updated: Jul 19, 2018 1:40 PM

Unseasonably strong mid & upper jet streak will pivot through Friday.  All wind fields aloft & overall shear should increase.  Cold pocket aloft should cross area with heating (resulting in pretty unstable airmass).  Although the best shear looks to remain to our south, we will have an ample amount for scattered severe risk.

The first wave of showers & t'storms will pass tonight-tomorrow morning.  An isolated severe storm is possible with the main threat being hail. 

Timing for the viewing area as a whole is currently 12 a.m. to 9 a.m.

It will become muggy tonight with southeast to south winds & lows of 65-70.

Some sun will appear between the rounds with gusty south to southwest winds 15-30 mph tomorrow. Highs will run in the low to mid 80s with muggy conditions (dew points 71-75).

Second round should feature scattered severe storms embedded in an eventual congealing of a squall line.  Main threat is wind with lesser large hail & brief tornado risk.  The better tornado risk exists to our south where the threat of some very large hail (+2.75" diameter or baseball size or larger) will occur, given the tilting & shearing at the hail level in these storms (with the cold air aloft).

Timing is generally 12 p.m. to 6 p.m.

In our viewing area, this is a scenario where a watch would be issued probably late morning (expiration near 5 p.m.) with multiple warnings ensuing as storms develop.

Localized flash flooding is possible.

This is definitely worthy of a solid SLIGHT RISK area-wide.  The ENHANCED RISK is currently south & southeast of us.  We will monitor.

CIPS Analog data from St. Louis University shows a broad area of severe weather risk when similar conditions & model solutions occurred in the past.  Bulls-eye of highest severe via analog data (past similar events) is over northeastern Kansas today-this evening & over the Lower Ohio Valley area tomorrow.  This is not a forecast, but analog data.

Following the severe weather, a scattering of showers & t'showers should dominate Saturday.

With a mix of a lots of clouds with some sun, it will be breezy from the west & northwest at 15-25 mph.  Highs will run in the 70s to near 80.

Locally-heavy rainfall will occur.  Localized flash flooding is possible.  Some corridors of +2.5" of rainfall are likely by Saturday.

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