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June 9, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Surge of intense heat to end this week & move into this weekend...

Posted: Jun 9, 2021 9:47 PM
Updated: Jun 9, 2021 11:03 PM

Highs today reached 82-90, but heat indices topped out as high as 96.  This is a tie with yesterday for the highest measured heat indices of the year measured for the viewing area.

Rainfall was very hit-or-miss once again today & this evening.  A few places received +1" in some downpours, many saw very little to none.

Funnel clouds were reports north of Fort Wayne & near South Bend & over south-central Illinois.  I only received one report in our area, that being in White County southwest of Chalmers.

The funnel cloud image is from Caleb Adams, taking northwest of Walkerton, Indiana.

Some patchy fog is possible tonight with lows 67-72 as any lingering spotty showers & storms in the north fade.

A couple showers & storms are possible tomorrow, but it looks increasingly capped with highs 86-92 with heat indices 90-98.  Looks like sunshine & some cumulus bubbling up.  An isolated funnel &/or landspout is possible as there will still be good vorticity with the upper low to our east & southeast & interaction of a lake breeze front pushing southward may serve as a focal point for enhanced low-level shear & vorticity for a funnel &/or landspout.

Patchy fog is possible Thursday night-Friday morning with lows 67-71.

Friday looks awfully capped for storm development.  Skies look mostly sunny with highs 87-94 with heat indices 93-99.

Lows Friday night of 67-71 with some patchy fog is possible.

Saturday will be HOT (it does look quite capped to prevent much in the way of storm development) with highs 93-98 with heat indices 95-100 (dew points will drop, curbing the heat index) with mostly sunny skies.

Lows Saturday night should drop to 67-72 with some patchy fog.

Sunday is mostly sunny & hot, but it is a drier heat with highs 91-96 with northwest winds 15-25 mph developing & dew points dropping from the 60s to the 50s.

Winds will be east to northeast Thursday to Friday with west to northwest wind Saturday.  They look pretty light these days, but they pick up with time later Sunday.

IF the cap is less, then we could get a couple storms to pop later Saturday or Friday, but the data shows too much of one for development, so I took the 20% & 30%s out of the forecast right now.

82-90 highs are expected Monday-Wednesday with lows 56-64 with mostly sunny skies & low dew points in the 40s & 50s.

Winds look northeast all of these days.

By late next week, we may heat up well into the 90s with at least one night with lows of only 78-81 with a strong southwest wind blowing.

There will likely be a "Ring of Fire" complex of severe storms near June 20, but the exact timing in details are unclear so far out.

Be aware of the heat & the risk of severe weather near that time.

This would be the latest severe weather watch issued for the area since at least 1972 (as far back as I have been able to dig).  The latest in the 1972-present record of weather watches issued by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center or Storm Prediction Center for any part of our area was June 17, 1992 with a Tornado Watch on a HIGH RISK day.

The earliest severe weather watch issued for the area was January 2, 2006 at 7:35 a.m. as a squall line approached on a SLIGHT RISK day.

The earliest occurrence of severe storms in a year actually occurred on the afternoon of January 1, 1876 (with temperatures surging to 72) when line of storm hit the area after producing F2 tornadoes in central Illinois.  70 reached as far north as southern Michigan & it was the warmest New Year's Day on record for the viewing area.  Even Logansport reported 72.

We will also watch & see if any effects occur here from the likely landfalling tropical storm or hurricane on the Gulf Coast.

We may even have another "Ridge Rider" a couple of days behind it as we surge back to the 90s.

At the end of June to early July, pattern looks like a "Ring of Fire" storm complexes to our northwest, north & northeast, while we have southwest winds with intense heat of 90s to 100s & lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  We look quite dry.

August looks warmer than normal with trend toward drier than normal (unless the tropics bring us good rainfall).

September looks cooler than normal overall, but also drier than normal, unless the tropics open up with heavier rainfall.

The continued trend is warmer than normal first half of winter, then colder than normal second half with at or above normal snowfall & overall precipitation.

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Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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