All new data will be analyzed & new forecast will be out by 11 p.m.
Highs today reached 87-94 with the bone-dry air. Dew points in the 30s to 40s dropped the relative humidity to as low as 15% in some places. These were the lowest relative humidity readings in June since 2012.
The area of greatest sinking air & heating seem to run from Kentland, through Greater Lafayette to Frankfort, Attica, Fowler.
Several reliable in that zone sensors were in the 90s including the Wake Robin (West Lafayette) observer with 94, Green Hill area at 94, Elston spotter with 93, Stockwell spotter with 92, 93 from rural eastern Tippecanoe County near Pettit, Fowler observer with 92 & rural Independence weather spotter with 91.
TD Cristobal continues move northward & its cloud shield will increase & thicken over the area tonight. With strong southeast wind, lows will only drop to 68-75 (even with still rather dry air).
The high-/mid-level milky cloud shield should break up in the morning & altocumulus castellanuts (puffy mid-level clouds) & cumulus should occur over the sky.
We should heat up quickly to 85-91 (hottest in northeastern areas) with a sudden, very rapid increase in the relative humidity in the afternoon. Dew points should skyrocket to the 70s with strong south-southeast wind gusting up to 40 mph.
A wave of scattered showers & storms is likely early to mid afternoon, followed by a second wave. 6-11 p.m. time frame shows the best potential of severe weather.
A couple/few tornadoes are possible with isolated severe gust potential.
We remain in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather per SPC. There is the potential of an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK.
The main reason for tornado risk mention is the following projected parameters:
1. Moist low-levels with low cloud bases (LCLs) with dew points at the surface rising to the 70s.
2. Up to 1500 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE (not extreme, but good enough).
3. 1500 J/kg CAPE concentrated near the surface (not extreme, but good enough).
4. Up to 400 m2/s-2 of 1 km helicity.
5. Strong overall low level wind fields 1000 to 5,000' with turning of winds from southeast to west-southwest in the first 10,000'.
This is associated with the overall circulation, but also the mid & upper support it will have as it moves northward. This will allow the system to actually deepen as it takes on more extratropical (or just typical strong mid-latitude storm system) aspects. It could very well deepen to 987 mb over southern Wisconsin & even 991 mb over northern Illinois.
We will monitor for tweaks & changes.
Any severe weather risk now looks to fire east of our area Wednesday, unless the timing of the upper low behind Cristobal & the cold front timing changes.
There is a pretty robust tornado risk in central & eastern Ohio to southwestern Ontario & eastern Lower Michigan Wednesday late afternoon-evening. This has the potential to be a big severe weather outbreak in that zone.
Cold front looks to pass here in the late morning-midday & continue eastward. You can see some spotty showers/t'showers along it & a few little sprinkles & showers behind it in the widespread cumulus/stratocumulus mixed with some periodic sun.
Highs should reach 79-86, then fall to 72-80 with west-southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph.
Humidity will also drop to dew points in the 50s.
Total rainfall Tuesday-Wednesday is looking like 0.40-1.50" for our area.
Thursday looks warm & dry with sun, breezy to windy conditions from the west & highs 81-86 after 58-63 overnight.
Cold front will slip through Friday with a couple isolated showers, otherwise it looks dry with sunshine, some clouds, windy conditions from the west turning to the northwest & highs 77-84.
Next weekend looks good with highs 71-76 Saturday & 75-80 Sunday. Sunday morning lows of 47-54 are likely.
We heat up pretty quickly next week with 90s by mid-week possible. It looks dry next week until perhaps some storms by the end of the week.
Heat will dominate with lots of 90s.