June 8, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some rainfall, a couple of cool spells, then heat & mugginess followed by stormy pattern.

Posted: Jun 8, 2019 9:26 PM
Updated: Jun 8, 2019 10:32 PM

Highs today ran 79-87 with a band of compressional heating with sinking air from Rochester to Winamac to Kentland back to Pontiac, Illinois.  Highs in that band ran 85-87.

Much of the viewing as was 80-82.

East wind gusts were measured as high as 30 mph.

Humidity shot up later in the day (dew points to as high as 68 late), along with a few showers around today, mainly late afternoon-evening.

However, there was no thunder or lightning.  Any showers were not of convective nature & were shallow with a shallow layer of 500 J/kg of surface CAPE.  The CAPE was concentrated near the surface & there was a lack of CAPE of substantial depth.  Low & mid level lapse rates were poor, leading to such shallow shower action with around 30% coverage by this late afternoon-evening.

Some more widespread showers will come in later tonight to Sunday morning.

Those will pass southeast to northwest over the area, followed by some sun & some convective rainfall developing with some areas of sun in the p.m.  Clouds will build & a scattered of showers & storms are likely with 50-60% coverage.

They should move southeast to northwest at first, then stall & begin to turn more west to east (as upper low to our southeast pulls away.........being pushed by approaching cold front from the west).

Seeing the Non-Supercell Tornado Parameters with the upper low southwest of us today, I still think there is a remote chance of a random, isolated rope funnel or brief, weak landspout tornado Sunday p.m. with the showers & storms.

In a vorticity-rich environment with some deeper CAPE (but still pretty shallow convection despite them getting tall enough for some lightning discharge) & CAPE focused near the surface in warm, muggy environment with low LCLs (cloud base heights), this seems reasonable.

Cold front should pass area Sunday night-Monday morning with a shower or two & that is it. 

Rainfall will vary GREATLY over the viewing area now to Sunday evening with totals of 0.10 to +1.50" due to scattered nature of it.  Areas that see heaviest showers/storms that sit the longest will see the highest totals.

It will literally be a situation of you getting 0.13" total & your neighbor seeing 1.60".

Monday looks windy with gray skies clearing in the p.m. with time & gusty northwest winds up to 32 mph.

Highs will only run 70-76 over the area.

Tuesday looks nice with lots of sunshine (& less wind) & highs 75-80 with morning lows of 50-54.

Some scattered showers & storms are possible late Wednesday-Wednesday night with highs 76-82 & lows in the 60s (after Wednesday morning lows 51-55).

Thursday looks cool & windy with partly to mostly cloudy skies & highs at only 65-72 with north winds to 30 mph.

Lake breeze front will keep the northern areas' highs around 65.

Here come the two shots of cooler air:

Friday looks great with 75-80 after 47-52 in the morning.

Right now, Saturday looks partly cloudy with highs 81-85 with morning lows in the 50s to 60s as winds turn to the southwest & pick up.

Warm to hot weather in an overall drier pattern should dominate June 16-25.  A couple rounds of storms (with risk of severe weather) are possible, but the rest of the time it looks like the main corridor of action will stay northwest of the area.  Temperatures could reach as high as 89-93 over the area with heat indices 93-106 with time.

Warmth dominates:

That should change June 27-July 1 with tendency for main storm track with heavy rainfall & storms (with severe risk) to be right over our area.

The Supercell Composite Parameter flares up over our area during this time showing favorable conditions for organized rounds of severe storms possible.

Pattern shows strong westerlies over area at upper levels, with strong low-level flow of muggy, hot, humid air northward around Bermuda to Gulf of Mexico surface high & a temperature gradient from our ara to Michigan with surface front stalled.

Front, MCVs, outflow boundaries & shortwaves along front support the development of storms in rich, warm, unstable environment here.

Highs in the 80s to 90 with lows 70-76 look to dominate with frequent bouts of dew points well into the 70s.

This track should shift away from the area beyond July 2 it appears.

Latest data suggests that the highest temperatures of 2019, so far, are shaping up for around July 10 with highs 91-95 with heat indices 100-111.  Soils may be damp & vegetation lush after wet start to July, setting stage for potential for a few 80-degree dew points.

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Some snow Wednesday to Wednesday night.....
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