We continue with showery, gray weather in our viewing area, but sun is appearing south of I-70.
There, clouds are bubbling up with more convective, heavier showers & even some storm action.
Non-Supercell Tornado Parameters are high in southwestern Indiana & western Kentucky with these showers & storms. A few random funnels &/or landspout tornadoes are possible there. These would not occur from mesocyclones or wall clouds, are more like the waterspouts you see on the Gulf Coast in summer & could even occur from just heavier showers.
This is due to instability focused near the surface, low LCLs (cloud bases) in warm, moist environment with weak deeper layer vertical shear. Vorticity is greatly enhanced by the low spinning in these area. This is a big factor in this risk with a large area of "spin" with spinning air parcels. However, lapse rates are rather weak.
Here, if we can get some of that clearing in this afternoon, which would allow heating & vertical cloud growth, then our rainfall would become more convective in nature. Thus, it will be scattered & heavier with larger drops with a few storms.
Also, it would allow the risk of an isolated random funnel &/or landspout tornado to occur.
Cold front should be nearing I-57 by 1 a.m. & will pass overnight-Monday morning with a couple isolated showers.
Winds will be strong from the northwest Monday at 20-35 mph.
Low, gray, dreary clouds should erode Monday midday to early afternoon, allowing for sunshine & a few spotty cumulus & highs 67-75. Lows of 50-55 are likely Monday night as winds diminish.
Winds will be lighter with mostly sunny skies & highs 75-80 Tuesday followed by 54-60 Tuesday night.
A wave of some scattered showers/storms are possible late Wednesday-Wednesday night after increasing clouds & highs 77-82.
Thursday looks unseasonably cool with partly cloudy skies, brisk north to northeast winds & highs 65-72 with Thursday night lows 46-51.
Friday looks good with 75-80, followed by 80-85 Saturday.
At this point, Saturday looks partly cloudy for the Taste of Tippecanoe, but storms are not far away in Illinois & could easily make it in here. We will monitor closely. It seems we almost always have storms nearby or in the area during the Taste, even if it looks dry a day or two before!
Only 3 of the past 10 have been completely dry.
4 of 10 have had severe weather warnings for wind, hail &/or tornadoes nearby the Taste or over the Taste.
2010: Two Lines of Severe Storms Evening & Night Prior.....Dry Taste
2011: AM Storms....Storms Nearby West of Us During Taste
2012: Storms Around: Severe T'Storm Warnings
2013: Scattered Showers & Few Storms Around with Few Showers at Taste
2014: Severe HP Supercell just west of Benton County (with Tornado Warning) & Severe Storms In Northeastern Illinois.....Few Showers at Taste
2015: Line of Severe Storms In Late Evening....Severe T'Storm Warnings
2017: Few Storms Around Afternoon....Line of Severe Storms Late Evening....Severe T'Storm Warnings
Sunday-Monday look dry. In fact, it looks dry until the evening of June 20.
There is really nothing substantial seen after that until around June 27, but we will monitor. We could have another round of storms sneak in, but it is overall a drier pattern.