Highs Monday varied 79-89 over the area, coolest where there was the greatest amount of rainfall & warmest where there was the least (& the greatest amount of sunshine).
Dew points reached their highest levels of the year so far at up to 75. Overall, they varied at peaks of 67-75 over the area.
Some more scattered pulsey showers/storms will occur today with warm, muggy 83-90 range & dew points 70-75. Heat indices will run 90-99. Morning lows are expected near 70 to 74.
Rainfall coverage should peak in the late afternoon-evening at peak heating.
Winds will be southerly at 10-23 mph.
Scattered pulsey showers & storms re-develop in the heating of the day Wednesday. Winds turn more to the southeast at 15-27 mph with muggy 80-87 range. Core of upper low from the Gulf of Mexico should center over southern Illinois by afternoon.
Morning lows are expected around 70 to 74.
Core of upper low should pass overhead Thursday with pulsey scattered showers & storms bubbling up with muggy 81-87 highs. Winds will be light from the east, then north to northwest at only 5 mph.
Wednesday & Thursday will feature very low cloud bases of LCLs amidst a tropical airmass of high dew points in the 70s in a very vorticity-rich environment.
So, there is change of a couple of funnels or an isolated ropey tropical landspout or two. If one touches down, there would be brief potential of a very short-lived Tornado Warning.
Otherwise, it would be risk of random isolated wet downburst if a storm can really pulse up.
Otherwise, watch for hit-or-miss, but locally-heavy downpours with high rainfall rates.
A couple/few spotty storms are possible Friday with light & variable wind turning to the northeast at 5-10 mph with highs 87-92. Heat indices will run 92-99.
After a hair cooler & less humid weather early- to mid-next week, hot ridge builds in.
Intense heat overspread area late next week. By Thursday, we could see 92-97 potentially. Note the 100s over the worsening drought in the Northern Plains & central & western Corn Belt. Getting to 110 is possible in South Dakota & 105 is possible to western Minnesota.
If current trends hold (& data is indeed similar to lastnight, by the way), some 100 readings may reach Illinois to northwestern Indiana by the end of next week. We will monitor.
Heat indices would be much higher given potential dew points of 68-75.
On the periphery of this boiling heat, there are signs of a few "Ring of Fire" severe "Ridge Riders" or complexes of storms on the periphery of the especially hot core of the ridge with very high CAPE (+3500 J/kg ML CAPE).
One of these may hit the area or clip it near June 19 or 20.
The nights looks especially warm during this time with lows only 77-82 with strong southwest wind blowing all day & all night.
Meanwhile tropical storm or hurricane will likely make landfall along the Gulf Coast near June 21.
Its exact track inland would be in question, but whether it moves toward Louisiana & Texas & gets pulled into Oklahoma & the then the High Plains or moves into Alabama & Georgia is a bit unclear in this round of data.
There are signs of a weak cold front here around June 22-23 with a few storms, though it looks quite capped with a lack of convergence.
Nonetheless, the hot ridge may show some contraction, allowing us to cool & bit & turn a bit less humid.
However, late, late June to mid-July looks like this....hot upper ridging dominating.
Texas, the Deep South & the Pacific Northwest to Northern Rockies look cooler than normal.
Intense heat should occur across our area to Iowa & Minnesota to eastern Canada & New England.
Potential is there for lots of 90s & still there for first 100 to 100s temp in the viewing area since 2012.
We do look drier than normal with "Ring of Fire" storm complexes well to the north & all of the tropical rainfall in the South to Texas.
There are continued signs that the core of the hot upper ridge may shift a bit to the south & southeast, bringing more of the intense heat that has been north of us recently, into our area.
The tropics will really ramp up with time. That will bear watching in July, August & right through September.
As for here, after a hotter & drier than normal July expected (tropics & "Ring of Fire" is the wildcard), August looks hotter & drier at first, then cooler. Late month looks wetter than the first half of the month.
September still looks cooler than normal, but there is not sign of lots of above normal rainfall..........except for the tropics wildcard changing that.