June 7, 4:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Scattered rainfall, cool-down, then heat.

Posted: Jun 7, 2019 3:47 PM
Updated: Jun 7, 2019 4:46 PM

With clouds & some sun Saturday, a few scattered showers & storms are possible in the afternoon & evening.  They will move from southeast & east to northwest & west over the viewing area.  They will tend to pulse up with the daily heating.

It will turn much more humid with strong east winds & highs 79-87 from southeast to northwest.

A few spotty showers are possible Saturday night with lows 65-68.

Scattered showers & storms are possible off & on Sunday with a peak in coverage during the afternoon to early evening hours.

The only severe weather issue would be a random, isolated brief rope funnel or tornado as the showers & storms will be in a moisture-rich, low LCL (cloud bases), vorticity-rich environment.

Cold front & upper trough will push out any rainfall Monday morning. 

Total rainfall Saturday-Monday morning will run 0.10" to 1.25".  It is highly-variable due to the very scattered nature of the rainfall & heavier cores in showers & storms.

Strong high pressure will move in, leading to strong north winds Monday afternoon, sunshine & highs only 68 north to 77 south (lake breeze front comes into the north).

Monday night looks cool with lows 48-53 over the area as winds go light to calm.

Ahead of another cold front & upper trough, winds turn to the southeast Tuesday-Wednesday with a few showers & storms late Wednesday.

Dynamics & shear are strong, but instability & moisture are completely lacking for any severe weather.

Highs will run in the 70s Tuesday & 70s to lower 80s Wednesday.

Strong high pressure will follow that front & upper trough, as well.  Highs on Thursday may only run 68-73 over the area with lows Thursday night at 47-52.

Normal is 79-82 & 59-61 over the viewing area.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some record low temperatures in the 40s & 50s from Texast to Tennessee right underneath the strong Canadian surface high.  This could drive unseasonably dry, confortable air to as far south as central Florida.

Wind will begin to turn to the southwest Friday (after being calm in the morning) after being from the north & northeast Thursday.  This signals the early stages of a rapid, significant warm-up ahead.

Note the strong southwest winds next Saturday-Monday, June 15-17.

It looks breezy & partly cloudy for the Taste of Tippecanoe with a high around 82 with an increase in the humidity.

Overall, highs look to run 80-84 Saturday over the area, followed by 83-87 Sunday, then 86-90 Monday.  Lows will be dominated by the 60s to even near 70 (by Sunday & Monday nights).  It will become muggy with time over the area.

Skies looks partly cloudy to mostly sunny each of those days right now with severe weather risk lined up from Wisconsin, far northwestern Illinois, Minnesota to Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas & Missouri.

A lot of the action stays northwest of us June 17-25.

However, this doesn't mean we will be completely dry during this time.  Drier, yes, but a few storms or a cluster of storms may penetrate into the area a time or two.

These would occur on outflow boundaries that move in from storms to our northwest when cap eases.  Also, they may occur as MCVs from previous night's storms pivot nearby, popping storms here.

Infrequent, yes, but a time or two may feature storms & severe risk could evolve from these meso-scale features as fairly strong mid & upper flow near & over our area will be maintained during this time.

Also, it looks very warm to hot & muggy with highs 85-92 with lows 65-71 & heat indices 91-106 likely.

There continue to be signs that a pretty active pattern with rounds of showers & storms with severe risk around June 27-July 1 with muggy conditions.

Supercell Composite Parameters show this pattern well:

Axis of heavier rainfall, severe weather will tend to shift northwest of our area as we get further into early July. 

Rainfall looks to drop from above normal to slightly below with time.  Temperatures should average out near normal after the wet, stormy spell after some slightly-above normal temperatures during the spell.

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Summer-like weather continues.
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