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June 11, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

One more surge of cooler air, then warm, muggy with some storms.

Posted: Jun 11, 2019 2:18 PM
Updated: Jun 11, 2019 3:21 PM

We still have not had more than 3 consecutive dry days (at least a trace of precipitation) since December 16-19 when we saw 4 at WLFI.  The trace on June 1 threw off that potential end to this anomaly. 

What is so interesting is that we have seen springs much better than this one get a crop out in a more timely manner.  2011 was wet, but we got the crop out.  2009 was wet early, but we got the crop out.  I have seen springs twice as wet as this one & the crop gets out.  Usually when it is that wet, you have an equally-abrupt dry spell.  In 2011, some areas saw 10" for the month, but May turned dry & warm allowing the crop to get out.

This spring was all about consistency.  We had consistent rainfall without a dry spell of more than 2-3 days.  In fact, spring 2019 will go down at rainfall at 100-150% of normal, not 200%-400% like some may think.

It was a wet, wet, snowy winter, as well with 20-30" of snow over much of the area & up to 125% the normal precipitation.  Two extreme, record-breaking cold spells puncuated wild temperature swings with lots of high winds & unusually consistent, soaking rainfalls.  Soaking rain fell atop snowpack & it kept the water just seeping into the pack & soil, not just running off.  Only thing that kept us from more than a 100-125% anomaly was a drier February.

Subsoil was filled to capacity, combine that with higher than normal amounts of cloud cover for spring, cooler temperatures, less evaporations & consistent (not necessarily very heavy) rainfall & you set the stage for wet topsoils over long periods of time.

We are entering another spell of good fieldwork now after really only three spells suitable for fieldwork since mid-March.

For January-May 2019, our mean temperatures are actually near normal, but precipitation does average out to 4-7" above normal in the area, consistuting "Above" to "Much Above" normal status.

67% of the corn crop is planted & half of the soybean crop is out........double over the past week or two.

Evaporation has been key.

It has finally gotten back to normal as we balance out the wet, muggy days with dry, windy, bright ones with lower dew points.

Evaporation anomalies over the past month show a positive trend to normal, which has greatly benefited farmers.

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Lows this morning ran 47-56.  Coolest was Crawfordsville Municipal Airport at 47, warmest were Fowler & Remington at 56.

We are now 75-80 with lots of sunshine & low humidity.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight with lows 50s to lower 60s.

Looks like mostly virga or rainfall that dries up on the way down on Wednesday morning.  A few sprinkles may make it down.

After this overcast & mostly virga passes, sun should appear with growing cumulus towers.

Scattered showers & storms should then pass in the afternoon-evening.

Highs will run 73-79 with southwest winds 15-30 mph.

One these pass, a break is possible, followed by widespread showers & isolated thunder overnight before tapering Thursday morning.

It will turn much cooler with northwest winds to 32 mph Thursday morning & lows 51-55.  Wind chills will drop into the 40s.

Low, dreary clouds will depart with time Thursday, followed by sun, north winds to 30 mph & highs 64-70.

After lows 46-51 Thursday night, clouds will increase Friday as warm front moves north & into the area.  Winds will turn to the southwest quickly & may gust to 30 mph in the late afternoon.  Highs should rise to 75-80.

A wave of some showers/storms are possible Saturday morning, followed by a break.

There is increasing consensus amoung model solutions & enembles of a potential of a complex of showers & storms in the late afternoon-evening as temperatures rise to the 80s & dew points rise well into the 60s with south to southwest winds. The north looks cooler with 70s.

This would tend to ride the warm frontal zone right into our viewing area

There is the risk of some severe weather if deeper instability is there given sheared environment & decent westerlies aloft.

The highest severe risk is southwest of our area, but SCP shows conditions favorable for some here.

Wild card is the cool air of Thursday.  It will gut instability all the way into the South (Texas to Georgia), so the unstable air would need to surge back northward quickly & it is unclear how quickly we can get that high humidity & unstable air back.

So, severe risk Saturday is still a bit blurry.  Again, shear, flow is good for some severe & we have a trigger along warm front, but degree of storms will be determined on how quickly the gutted buoyant air can get back into the area.

We may need to watch Sunday p.m. for some severte weather risk as storms may develop as front sinks back southward in response to surface low (& upper trough) pivoting through Iowa, Wisconsin & Michigan.

It looks muggy with highs in the 80s.

Late June looks active for rounds of storms & locally-heavy rainfall.  This should taper as we start July.

It looks quite warm to hot & muggy with the storms around, too.  GFS model has around 90 on June 21 with peak dew point around 74.

The overnight lows do not drop below 66 June 15 to at least July 2 with 80s dominating, per GFS model.

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