This heat is extreme in the Northern Plains, all the way to Iowa, Wisconsin & Michigan. Fire danger is EXTREMELY HIGH today in Michigan with droughty conditions, strong winds, low dew points & temperatures near 100.
Lows this morning over the Great Lakes were incredibly warm with 72 at Iron Mountain, Michigan, 72 at northern Michigan's Gaylord Airport & even Traverse City only dropped to 73. Lows were only around 80 in parts of central Minnesota.
This, after readings 100-106 yesterday in a large area of the Plains to northern Minnesota. Minot & Bismarck reached 106, while north of Grand Forks, 104 was measured. 102 was measured in Manitoba & northern Minnesota's Kittson. Even Kenora & Grey Trout, Ontario hit 97 (all surrounded by cold lake water).
La Cross, Wisconsin saw 97, Kenosha hit 94 & Chicago's Pewaukee Airport reached 93.
The hot, hot ridge splits in two pieces over the next week (from Minnesota & Iowa to Arizona & Mid-Atlantic to Florida), but not how it never goes away. Parts of the Plains & Minnesota will be near or above 100 for 7 days.
With this split, it gives a window for this upper low from the Gulf of Mexico to move up into our area & bring cooling showers & storms (but a lot of mugginess).
By mid-June, the hot upper ridge is regaining strenght from the Canadian Prairies to Arizona. 106 is possible in the Dakotas & 122 in Arizona.
As of 12 p.m., temperatures are 81-88 over the area with nice southwest wind & low humidity.
Highs today will run 90-96 with heat indices 90-96.
Tomorrow, clouds increase in the morning & a few spotty showers & storms are possible through the day (30%) coverage.
Highs will run 86-95 (hottest along Kankakee River, coolest south & southeast).
It will turn more humid Sunday, especially later in the day.
Heat indices will eventually reach 91-99.
We will have a nice south wind blowing at 15-25 mph.
A couple to few showers are possible Monday morning, followed by a lull, then some scattered storms Monday late afternoon-evening.
Given high humidity & boiling instability with 80s to lower 90s, an isolated severe storm is possible with a random, pulsey severe gust briefly belching out of a storm.
Storm coverage should run around 35%.
Shower/storm coverage goes up to 45% Tuesday afternoon with muggy highs in the 80s to 90.
Scattered showers & storms are possible Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday & Sunday as upper low stalls, being blocked by upper ridging east, northeast, northwest & west of the area.
Other than an isolated severe storm, it just looks like 45-50% coverage of showers & storms daily (mostly peaking in the heating of the afternoon-evening hours).
We will watch for influence of any landfalling tropical systems near June 20 with rain-cooled weather.
We should heat back up very late June & into July after temperature cooling for a bit.